Background In April 2020, Covid-19 brought NHS elective procedures to a halt. The aim of this paper is to produce accurate forecasts on the building backlog, highlight the state of waiting lists currently and propose solutions required to prevent a public health crisis. Method Using data published by NHS digital and NHS England on previous years, we have analysed and used this to produce estimates of cancellations and missed cases. We also analyse government data on waiting lists and show compliance or lack of with these. Results We show that compliance with waiting list times pre pandemic was falling year on year (83.2% in 2020 down from 87% in 2019). Every month that passes we estimate that 400 000 cases are not being performed. This may include urgent cancer care work in some trusts. Conclusions Waiting lists have been governed by strict rules since 2004. Given falling compliance with 18-week intention to treat we believe the scale of the backlog combined with NHS capacity diminished due to Covid-19 precautions is a public health crisis waiting to occur. We identify difficulties in resuming elective work and suggest strategies that could be employed to avoid a public health crisis.

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Introduction: Designed in 1972 the Abbreviated Mental Test Score (AMTS) is widely used to assess a cognition on hospital admission. The Nottingham Hip Fracture Score uses this in predicting morbidity/mortality in neck of femur fracture. The consequences of misappropriating cognitive impairment could have lasting implications. Questions about the monarchy or World War One and Two may be inappropriate for today’s diverse society. Materials and Methods: 100 patients were questioned during routine fracture clinic appointments. Patients were asked: In what year did WWII start? Who is the current monarch? Please state a memorable event in your lifetime that you would not expect another person of the same age to forget. Two-tailed Z-tests were performed between the observed proportions and those from the original AMTS validation study. Results: Only 47% (n = 47) were able to correctly answer the year in which WW2 started. A statistically significant difference when compared to the upper and lower limits from the original study (z = -4.191, p < .001.). Significance was not seen in the second question, with 97% (n-97) identifying the monarch correctly. 51% (n = 51) of participants suggested the terrorist attack on the World Trade Centre in New York as an alternative memorable event. Discussion: Some hospitals now use the 4 “A”s Test (4-AT) as a screening tool for delirium. Without amendments to the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score, AMTS use is likely to continue in orthogeriatric patients. Over time there will be a need for the AMTS to be reviewed so that it remains a true assessment of cognition. Its limitations regarding language and culture is widely acknowledged and several validated variants have been published in the literaure. Conclusions: We highlight a potential future issue with the AMTS and raise considerations for the development of an alternative question to better meet the needs of the orthogeriatric population.

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