This study aimed to build an easily applicable prognostic model based on routine clinical, radiological, and laboratory data available at admission, to predict mortality in coronavirus 19 disease (COVID-19) hospitalized patients. Methods: We retrospectively collected clinical information from 1968 patients admitted to a hospital. We built a predictive score based on a logistic regression model in which explicative variables were discretized using classification trees that facilitated the identification of the optimal sections in order to predict inpatient mortality in patients admitted with COVID-19. These sections were translated into a score indicating the probability of a patient’s death, thus making the results easy to interpret. Results. Median age was 67 years, 1104 patients (56.4%) were male, and 325 (16.5%) died during hospitalization. Our final model identified nine key features: age, oxygen saturation, smoking, serum creatinine, lymphocytes, hemoglobin, platelets, C-reactive protein, and sodium at admission. The discrimination of the model was excellent in the training, validation, and test samples (AUC: 0.865, 0.808, and 0.883, respectively). We constructed a prognostic scale to determine the probability of death associated with each score. Conclusions: We designed an easily applicable predictive model for early identification of patients at high risk of death due to COVID-19 during hospitalization.

BackgroundOne reason for the aggressiveness of the pancreatic cancer is that it is diagnosed late, which often limits both the therapeutic options that are available and patient survival. The long-term survival of pancreatic cancer patients is not possible if the tumor is not resected, even among patients who receive chemotherapy in the earliest stages. The main objective of this study was to create a prediction model for in-hospital mortality after a pancreatectomy in pancreatic cancer patients.MethodsWe performed a retrospective study of all pancreatic resections in pancreatic cancer patients in Spanish public hospitals (2013). Data were obtained from records in the Minimum Basic Data Set. To develop the prediction model, we used a boosting method.ResultsThe in-hospital mortality of pancreatic resections in pancreatic cancer patients was 8.48% in Spain. Our model showed high predictive accuracy, with an AUC of 0.91 and a Brier score of 0.09, which indicated that the probabilities were well calibrated. In addition, a sensitivity analysis of the information available prior to the surgery revealed that our model has high predictive accuracy, with an AUC of 0.802.ConclusionsIn this study, we developed a nation-wide system that is capable of generating accurate and reliable predictions of in-hospital mortality after pancreatic resection in patients with pancreatic cancer. Our model could help surgeons understand the importance of the patients’ characteristics prior to surgery and the health effects that may follow resection.

Due to the need to predict traffic congestion during the morning or evening rush hours in large cities, a model that is capable of predicting traffic flow in the short term is needed. This model would enable transport authorities to better manage the situation during peak hours and would allow users to choose the best routes for reaching their destinations. The aim of this study was to perform a short-term prediction of traffic flow in Madrid, using different types of neural network architectures with a focus on convolutional residual neural networks, and it compared them with a classical time series analysis. The proposed convolutional residual neural network is superior in all of the metrics studied, and the predictions are adapted to various situations, such as holidays or possible sensor failures.

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