In order to determine if the expression of the activation marker CD38 can correlate with HIV disease progression independently of cycling, we performed a cluster-based multivariate correlation analysis of total circulating CD4+ T cell counts and viral loads with frequencies of CD38 and Ki67 expression on CD4+ lymphocytes from patients with untreated HIV infection, stratified in maturation subpopulations, and subpopulation subsets defined by the expression of CXCR5, CXCR3, and CCR4. The frequencies of the activated phenotypes %CD38+ Ki67− and %CD38+ Ki67+ of the CXCR5− CXCR3− CCR4+ (“pre-Th2”) central memory (TCM) cell subset clustered together, comprising a significant negative correlate of total circulating CD4+ T cell counts and a positive correlate of viral load in multivariate analysis. Frequency of cycling-uncoupled CD38 expression in “pre-Th2” TCM cells was a negative correlate of total circulating CD4+ T cell counts in univariate analysis, which was not the case of their %CD38+ Ki67+. CXCR5+ CXCR3− CCR4−  TCM cells were underrepresented in patients, and their absolute counts correlated negatively with their %CD38+ Ki67− but not with their % CD38+ Ki67+. Our results may imply that CD38 expression either reflects or participates in pathogenic mechanisms of HIV disease independently of cell cycling.