No abstract

Hydrogen is crucial in achieving global energy transition and carbon neutrality goals. Existing market estimates typically presume linear or exponential growth but fail to consider how market demand responds to the declining cost of underlying technologies. To address this, this study utilizes a learning curve model to project the cost of electrolyzers and its subsequent impact on hydrogen market, aligning with a premise that the market demand is proportional to the cost of hydrogen. In a case study of China’s hydrogen market, projecting from 2020 to 2060, we observed substantial differences in market evolution compared to exponential growth scenarios. Contrary to exponential growth scenarios, China’s hydrogen market experiences faster growth during the 2020–2040 period rather than later. Such differences underscore the necessity for proactive strategic planning in emerging technology markets, particularly for those experiencing rapid cost decline, such as hydrogen. The framework can also be extended to other markets by using local data, providing valuable insights to investors, policymakers, and developers engaged in the hydrogen market.

The increasing penetration of renewable and distributed resources signals a global boom in energy transition, but traditional grid utilities have yet to share in much of the triumph at the current stage. Higher grid management costs, lower electricity prices, fewer customers, and other challenges have emerged along the path toward renewable energy, but many more opportunities await to be seized. Most importantly, there are insufficient studies on how grid utilities can thrive within the hydrogen economy. Through a case study on the State Grid Corporation of China, we identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of grid utilities within the hydrogen economy. Based on these factors, we recommend that grids integrate hydrogen into the energy-as-a-service model and deliver it to industrial customers who are under decarbonization pressure. We also recommend that grid utilities fund a joint venture with pipeline companies to optimize electricity and hydrogen transmissions simultaneously.