Cellular growth impacts a range of phenotypic responses. Identifying the sources of fluctuations in growth and how they propagate across the cellular machinery can unravel mechanisms that underpin cell decisions. We present a stochastic cell model linking gene expression, metabolism and replication to predict growth dynamics in single bacterial cells. In addition to several population-averaged data, the model quantitatively recovers how growth fluctuations in single cells change across nutrient conditions. We develop a framework to analyse stochastic chemical reactions coupled with cell divisions and use it to identify sources of growth heterogeneity. By visualising cross-correlations we then determine how such initial fluctuations propagate to growth rate and affect other cell processes. We further study antibiotic responses and find that complex drugnutrient interactions can both enhance and suppress heterogeneity. Our results provide a predictive framework to integrate single-cell and bulk data and draw testable predictions with implications for antibiotic tolerance, evolutionary biology and synthetic biology.
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