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Recently, two independent studies have produced contradicting evidence regarding the extent of price discrimination in developing countries. The objective of this study is to reexamine the evidence of direct and indirect distortion in cereal producer prices. Nominal protection coefficients for wheat, maize, and rice are calculated for fifty‐one developing countries spanning the period 1980–86. Black market exchange rates are used to adjust the nominal protection coefficients to reflect the indirect effect of price interventions through exchange rate policies. The results confirm the conventional wisdom that, although developing countries tend to protect domestic cereal producers, taxation caused by overvaluation of official exchange rates exceeds any direct price protection offered domestic producers.

This paper describes a method for assessing household food insecurity. The method determines the level of current food insecurity experienced by individual households, whether they are at risk of food insecurity in the short term and whether they are likely to experience improving or worsening food insecurity in the long term. The method, which is based on the households' own description of their conditions, uses a household questionnaire and a quasi-expert system. The quasi-expert system greatly increases the speed of assessment because the questionnaire and the analysis are developed simultaneously. To date, the method has been used to survey and describe household food security in six developing countries. The method and the results of these applications are discussed in this paper. SOMMAIRE La mkthode d'kvaluation dkcrite ici permet de dtterminer le niveau d'incertitudealimentaire d'un mknage donnk. Elle utilise un questionnaire destink au mknage et un systkme d'analyse quasi expert. Les systkmes experts sont des programmes informatiques interactifs qui simulent le dialogue question-rkponse qui pourrait s'ktablir si l'on demandait l'avis d'un expert sur un problkme et sa solution kventuelle. En l'occurrence, le systkme est dit quasi expert parce qu'il n'est pas interactif: Le programme utilise plutdt l'information contenue dans les rkponses au questionnaire pour arriver d des conclusions concernant l'ktat de la skuritk alimentaire de chacun des mknages rkpondants. La rnkthode d'analyse se fonde sur la description que le mknage fait de sa situation et comporte une variable temporelle. Elle dktermine le niveau d'inskcuritk alimentaire actuel du mknage, que celui-ci risque de manquer de nourriture dans un avenir immkdiat* We gratefully acknowledge the work and dedication of many individuals who have contributed over the years to developing this assessment method. We also gratefully acknowledge numerous institutions for their support and financing of the projects described in this paper: the University of Guelph; CIDA; the Regional Centre for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture in Los Bafios, Philippines and its cooperating institutions -the Lao Council of Medical Sciences; IDRC in Singapore; World Vision Canada; and World Vision Mozambique. ou bien de voir sa situation alimentaire s'arnkliorer ou se dttkriorer b plus long terme. Cette mkthode acctlkre knormtment l'tvaluation, puisque le questionnaire et l'analyse se formulent simultantment. A ce jour, la mkthode a servi b recenser et b dkcrire l'incertitude alimentaire de mknages particuliers dans six pays : l'lndonbie, la Malaisie, les Philippines, la Thai'lande, le Laos et le Mozambique. L'article examine les rkgles dkcision-

A simple model is presented to examine the effects of instability in global food aid supplies on foreign exchange expenditures and food availability in recipient countries. When global food prices rise, food aid recipients are doubly affected through decreased availability of food aid, and through higher costs of additional commercial imports needed to make up the shortfall. Empirical estimates of key parameters of the model suggest that countries with a high dependence on food aid may place their food security at risk. Suit un modèle simple qui permet d'analyser les conséquences de l'instabilité des approvi‐sionnements destinés à l'aide alimentaire sur les dépenses en devises étrangères et l'offre d'aliments dans les pays bénéficiaires. Lorsque le prix mondial des aliments augmente, les bénéficiaires de l'aide alimentaire subissent le contrecoup à la fois d'une aide alimentaire réduite et du coût plus éléve des produits importés pour répondre à la pénurie. Une estimation empirique des principaux parametrés du modele suggére que les pays qui dépendent fortement de l'aide alimentaire compromettent leur sécurité alimentaire.

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