Flight safety depends on a number of meteorological factors, including icing. Forecasting of aircraft icing implies taking into account only the meteorological conditions; therefore, “icing possibility” is forecasted. The next step in forecasting techniques is a technology of predicting the current state of weather — nowcasting. This technology requires continuous input measurement data with small time steps. These requirements can be met by using atmosphere remote sensing. A new methodology is proposed for detecting possible aircraft icing areas, which is based on remote measurement of air temperature profiles in the lower kilometer layer and the total vapor content of the atmosphere. The total vapor content is measured using an RMS-1 radiometric system. The data series of air temperature profiles and the total vapor content of the atmosphere in the area of St. Petersburg airport (Pulkovo) are analyzed for the period from November 2018 to March 2020. The distribution patterns for temperature and total vapor content typical for the onset of icing are determined.

Icing is a potentially hazardous weather events for aviation. Aircraft icing, as a rule, occurs as a result of the formation of ice on its surface at negative temperatures and high air humidity. Automated nowcasting system “Neva” implements a method for predicting aircraft icing zones based on radiometric measurements of atmospheric parameters. The results of nowcasting of icing zones in the area of the St. Petersburg airfield (Pulkovo) at heights up to 1 kilometer on the basis of remote measurements are presented. The accuracy of forecasting was verified using information on the actual icing cases according to the data of the aerodrome weather service, as well as the data of radio sounding at the Voeikovo aerological station. The high accuracy of forecasts and the icing warning rate are shown, as well as good agreement of the nowcating results with the Godske method generally used in operational practice. Evaluation of the quality of nowcasting shows to the prospects of using the automated system “Neva” for predicting aircraft icing zones on the base of radiometric measurements of atmospheric parameters. The forecasts obtained for the period from October 2018 to March 2020 in the Pulkovo airfield area feature high accuracy and warning rate, and the results largely coincide with the generally used method for forecasting aircraft icing zones (Godske method).

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