Summary1. Gridded climatologies have become an indispensable component of bioclimatic modelling, with a range of applications spanning conservation and pest management. Such globally conformal data sets of historical and future scenario climate surfaces are required to model species potential ranges under current and future climate scenarios. 2. We developed a set of interpolated climate surfaces at 10¢ and 30¢ resolution for global land areas excluding Antarctica. Input data for the baseline climatology were gathered from the WorldClim and CRU CL1AE0 and CL2AE0 data sets. A set of future climate scenarios were generated at 10¢ resolution. For each of the historical and future scenario data sets, the full set of 35 Bioclim variables was generated. Climate variables (including relative humidity at 0900 and 1500 hours) were also generated in CLIMEX format. The Ko¨ppen-Geiger climate classification scheme was applied to the 10¢ hybrid climatology as a tool for visualizing climatic patterns and as an aid for specifying absence or background data for correlative modelling applications. 3. We tested the data set using a correlative model (MaxEnt) addressing conservation biology concerns for a rare Australian shrub, and a mechanistic niche model (CLIMEX) to map climate suitability for two invasive species. In all cases, the underlying climatology appeared to behave in a robust manner. 4. This global climate data set has the advantage over the WorldClim data set of including humidity data and an additional 16 Bioclim variables. Compared with the CRU CL2AE0 data set, the hybrid 10¢ data set includes improved precipitation estimates as well as projected climate for two global climate models running relevant greenhouse gas emission scenarios. 5. For many bioclimatic modelling purposes, there is an operational attraction to having a globally conformal historical climatology and future climate scenarios for the assessments of potential climate change impacts. Our data set is known as 'CliMond' and is available for free download from http://www.climond.org.

Summary1. Acacia nilotica is a spinescent woody legume that has become highly invasive in several parts of the world, including Australia where it has been declared a weed of national significance. Understanding the likely potential distribution of this notorious plant under current and future climate scenarios will enable policy makers and land managers to prepare appropriate strategies to manage the invasion. 2. CLIMEX was used to synthesize available information from diverse sources to model the invasion potential of A. nilotica and gain insights into the climatic factors limiting its range expansion. The model identified areas at risk of further invasion so that early preventative or ameliorative measures could be undertaken in a timely manner. 3. The potential distribution of A. nilotica in Australia under current climatic conditions is vast, and far greater than the current distribution. 4. Global climate change is likely to increase markedly the potential distribution of A. nilotica in Australia, significantly increasing the area at risk of invasion. The factors of most importance are the expected increases in water-use efficiency of A. nilotica due to increased atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, allowing it to invade more xeric sites further inland, and increased temperatures, allowing it to complete its reproductive life cycle further southward (poleward). Synthesis and applications.Simple paddock quarantine procedures may provide a means of limiting the range of A. nilotica within its potential distribution under current, as well as future, climate scenarios. The projected increased growth potential of A . nilotica throughout its current range suggests that if future management patterns result in seed pods lying unconsumed on the ground, heightened vigilance may be required to identify and eradicate new invasion foci arising from flood dispersal. The increased growth potential may also result in an alteration of the economic balance, in favour of harvesting A. nilotica for agroforestry or local bioenergy projects. A crucial component in containing this invasion will be raising public awareness of the invasion threat posed by A. nilotica , its identification and suitable control techniques.

The oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel), is a major pest throughout South East Asia and in a number of Pacific Islands. As a result of their widespread distribution, pest status, invasive ability and potential impact on market access, B. dorsalis and many other fruit fly species are considered major threats to many countries. CLIMEX was used to model the potential global distribution of B. dorsalis under current and future climate scenarios. Under current climatic conditions, its projected potential distribution includes much of the tropics and subtropics and extends into warm temperate areas such as southern Mediterranean Europe. The model projects optimal climatic conditions for B. dorsalis in the south-eastern USA, where the principle range-limiting factor is likely to be cold stress. As a result of climate change, the potential global range for B. dorsalis is projected to extend further polewards as cold stress boundaries recede. However, the potential range contracts in areas where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially. The significant increases in the potential distribution of B. dorsalis projected under the climate change scenarios suggest that the World Trade Organization should allow biosecurity authorities to consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. One of the most significant areas of uncertainty in climate change concerns the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results are provided that span the range of standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios. The impact on the projected distribution of B. dorsalis is striking, but affects the relative abundance of the fly within the total suitable range more than the total area of climatically suitable habitat.

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