Abstract. The use of presence/absence data in wildlife management and biological surveys is widespread. There is a growing interest in quantifying the sources of error associated with these data. We show that false-negative errors (failure to record a species when in fact it is present) can have a significant impact on statistical estimation of habitat models using simulated data. Then we introduce an extension of logistic modeling, the zero-inflated binomial (ZIB) model that permits the estimation of the rate of false-negative errors and the correction of estimates of the probability of occurrence for false-negative errors by using repeated visits to the same site. Our simulations show that even relatively low rates of false negatives bias statistical estimates of habitat effects. The method with three repeated visits eliminates the bias, but estimates are relatively imprecise. Six repeated visits improve precision of estimates to levels comparable to that achieved with conventional statistics in the absence of false-negative errors. In general, when error rates are Յ50% greater efficiency is gained by adding more sites, whereas when error rates are Ͼ50% it is better to increase the number of repeated visits. We highlight the flexibility of the method with three case studies, clearly demonstrating the effect of false-negative errors for a range of commonly used survey methods.

Many organisms occupy heterogeneous landscapes that contain both barriers to movement as well as corridors that facilitate dispersal. The extent to which such features determine population connectivity will depend on the mechanisms utilized by organisms to disperse. Here we examined the interaction between landscape structure and dispersal in the endemic aquatic snail, Fonscochlea accepta, in the fragmented artesian spring ecosystem of arid central Australia. We used frequentist and Bayesian analyses of microsatellite data to identify population structure and immigration for 1130 snails sampled from 50 springs across an entire spring complex. We introduce a modified isolation-by-distance analysis to test hypotheses about how populations are clustered and to distinguish the most likely dispersal pathways within and between those clusters. Highly significant differences in F(ST) values and significant isolation-by-distance patterns were detected among springs across the entire complex, while Bayesian assignment tests revealed the presence of two hierarchical levels of spring clustering. Clusters were defined by the spatial aggregation of springs, dynamic aquatic habitat connections between springs and the ecology of the snails. Bayesian immigrant identification and our modified isolation-by-distance analysis revealed that dispersal occurs at two geographical scales via two very different mechanisms. Short range dispersal (usually or= 3 km) is likely facilitated by an animal vector (phoresy). These results underline the importance of both dispersal mode and landscape structure in influencing connectivity rates and patterns among populations.

The role of disturbance in the promotion of biological heterogeneity is widely recognised and occurs at a variety of ecological and evolutionary scales. However, within species, the impact of disturbances that decimate populations are neither predicted nor known to result in conditions that promote genetic diversity. Directly examining the population genetic consequences of catastrophic disturbances however, is rarely possible, as it requires both longitudinal genetic data sets and serendipitous timing. Our long-term study of the endemic aquatic invertebrates of the artesian spring ecosystem of arid central Australia has presented such an opportunity. Here we show a catastrophic flood event, which caused a near total population crash in an aquatic snail species (Fonscochlea accepta) endemic to this ecosystem, may have led to enhanced levels of within species genetic diversity. Analyses of individuals sampled and genotyped from the same springs sampled both pre (1988–1990) and post (1995, 2002–2006) a devastating flood event in 1992, revealed significantly higher allelic richness, reduced temporal population structuring and greater effective population sizes in nearly all post flood populations. Our results suggest that the response of individual species to disturbance and severe population bottlenecks is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and may depend on both their ecology (whether they are resilient or resistant to disturbance) and the stability of the environmental conditions (i.e. frequency and intensity of disturbances) in which they have evolved.

No abstract

Fire can often occur in aquatic ecosystems, which may affect aquatic invertebrates. Despite the importance of aquatic invertebrates to ecosystem function, the effect of fire on these environments has been little studied.We studied the effects of fire on aquatic invertebrates in artesian springs in the arid zone of South Australia. Artesian springs are a unique and threatened ecosystem, containing several rare and endemic species. Evidence suggests these wetlands were routinely burnt by indigenous Aboriginal people before European settlement over 100 years ago. Recently, burning has been suggested as a reinstated management tool to control the dominant reed Phragmites australis. A reduction in the cover of the reed may benefit the threatened flora and fauna through enhancement of water flow. Three artesian springs were burnt and aquatic invertebrates sampled from the burnt and three unburnt springs. A single fire in late winter completely burnt the dominant vegetation, followed by recovery of Phragmites over the following 2 years. A single fire event did not deplete populations of endemic aquatic invertebrates in artesian springs, but probably did not substantially benefit these populations either. Isopods, amphipods, ostracods and three species of hydrobiid snail survived the fire event, and most had increased in number 1 month post fire but then returned to pre-burnt numbers by 1 year post fire. Morphospecies richness of all identified invertebrates increased over time in all springs, but did not differ appreciably between burnt and unburnt springs. If burning artesian springs is to be adopted as a management tool to suppress the growth of Phragmites australis, we conclude that the endemic aquatic invertebrates will survive a single burn event, without negative effect to their populations.