The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system-dynamics simulation model intended to explore the potential for rapid expansion of the biofuels industry. The model is not predictive -it uses scenario assumptions based on various types of data to simulate industry development, emphasizing how incentives and technological learning-by-doing might accelerate industry growth. The BSM simulates major sectors of the biofuels industry, including feedstock production and logistics, conversion, distribution, and end uses, as well as interactions among sectors. The model represents conversion of biomass to biofuels as a set of technology pathways, each of which has allowable feedstocks, capital and operating costs, allowable products, and other defi ned characteristics. This study and the BSM address bioenergy modeling analytic needs that were identifi ed in recent literature reviews. Simulations indicate that investments are most effective at expanding biofuels production through learning-by-doing when they are coordinated with respect to timing, pathway, and target sector within the biofuels industry. Effectiveness metrics include timing and magnitude of increased production, incentive cost and cost effectiveness, and avoidance of windfall profi ts. Investment costs and optimal investment targets have inherent risks and uncertainties, such as the relative value of investment in more-mature versus less mature pathways. These can be explored through scenarios, but cannot be precisely predicted. Dynamic competition, including competition for cellulosic feedstocks and ethanol market shares, intensifi es during times of rapid growth. Ethanol production increases rapidly, even up to Renewable Fuel Standards-targeted volumes of biofuel, in simulations that allow higher blending proportions of ethanol in gasoline-fueled vehicles. Improved answers to these questions could support faster growth in the biofuels industry and increase the eff ectiveness of the federal government's investment in policies to promote renewable fuels. Th is study uses the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) to explore these questions and identify key incentives, bottlenecks, and points of leverage that may, given particular scenarios, facilitate industry development.Recent literature reviews of bioenergy modeling identifi ed numerous analytic needs, some of which the BSM addresses. Four of these are summarized here.1. Some reviews 6,7 noted a need to address bioenergy risks and challenges -such as variability in policies, feedstock supply, and demand or competition for land -in a way that accounts for the multiple complex interactions between bioenergy and other sectors. Th ey suggest that this need can be met by using holistic models, including system dynamics models, that provide an overall framework for simulating bioenergy supply chain development over time. Th ese include bioenergy end use, distribution, biomass-to-bioenergy conversion, and resource production and transportation, as well as clear and consistent accounting for linkages with other sec...
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