Since 1993, the annual worldwide cost of diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae), control has been routinely quoted to be US$1 billion. This estimate requires updating and incorporation of yield losses to reflect current total costs of the pest to the world economy. We present an analysis that estimates what the present costs are likely to be based on a set of necessary, but reasoned, assumptions. We use an existing climate driven model for diamondback moth distribution and abundance, the Food and Agriculture Organization country Brassica crop production data and various management scenarios to bracket the cost estimates. The "length of the string" is somewhere between US$1.3 billion and US$2.3 billion based on management costs. However, if residual pest damage is included then the cost estimates will be even higher; a conservative estimate of 5% diamondback moth-induced yield loss to all crops adds another US$2.7 billion to the total costs associated with the pest. A conservative estimate of total costs associated with diamondback moth management is thus US$4 billion-US$5 billion. The lower bound represents rational decision making by pest managers based on diamondback moth abundance driven by climate only. The upper estimate is due to the more normal practice of weekly insecticide application to vegetable crops and the assumption that canola (Brassica napus L.) is treated with insecticide at least once during the crop cycle. Readers can decide for themselves what the real cost is likely to be because we provide country data for further interpretation. Our analysis suggests that greater efforts at implementation of even basic integrated pest management would reduce insecticide inputs considerably, reducing negative environmental impacts and saving many hundreds of millions of dollars annually.
The acronym IPM (integrated pest management) has been around for over 50 years and now not only supposedly guides research and extension in pest management but also markets pesticides, is claimed to be undertaken by many growers, and even resonates with public perceptions and politicians. Whether or not IPM programs are sustainable in the longer term under the conflicting stresses and strains of the modern agricultural environment is debatable. We analyse three case studies of IPM development in Australia: citrus IPM in central Queensland, Brassica IPM in southeast Queensland and Helicoverpa management in cotton in eastern Australia. Many management practices for these pests have changed over time. In the more stable citrus system classical biological control along with changed practices (reduced pesticide use) have effectively controlled imported scale insect pests. In Brassicas and cotton, IPM is predominantly of the sample and spray variety where, increasingly, less broad-spectrum insecticides are used and, in cotton, Helicoverpa management includes the deployment of transgenic plants. We question whether or not IPM principles are always consistent with market forces and whether or not the approach is universally applicable for all pest insects when implemented at the small (field or farm) scale. Farmers will adopt cost-effective approaches that minimise their financial risks. For Australia as a whole over the last 30 years insecticide input costs per hectare have increased faster than the price index, reflecting more costly insecticides, changes to the combinations of crops grown and an increase in the overall area of crops cultivated together with possible concomitant changes in pest abundance. Any pest crisis will ensure rapid changes in practice and adoption of technologies, in order to mitigate the short-term financial stresses caused. However, regression to former practices tends to follow (e.g. in Brassica crops). In most cases, we cannot objectively test if changed management practices are responsible for changes in pest abundance, as is often claimed, or if the latter is simply a consequence of the weather and/or related large-scale landscape features (e.g. area of host plants). We argue that for many systems the future of pest management practice will require a change to landscape or area-wide approaches. We suspect, given how entrenched the acronym has become, whatever the nature of the approach it will be called IPM.
Climate change is likely to have substantial effects on irrigated agriculture. Extreme climate events, such as droughts, are likely to become more common. These patterns are evident in median projections of climate change for the Murray–Darling Basin in Australia. Understanding climate change effects on returns from irrigation involves explicit representation of spatial changes in natural stocks (i.e., water supply) and their temporal variability (i.e., frequency of drought states of nature) and the active management responses to capital stocks represented by mitigation and alternative adaptation strategies by state of nature. A change in the frequency of drought will induce a change in the allocation of land and water between productive activities. In this paper, a simulation model of state‐contingent production is used to analyze the effects of climate change adaptation and mitigation. In the absence of mitigation, climate change will have severe adverse effects on irrigated agriculture in the Basin. However, a combination of climate mitigation and adaptation through changes in land and water use will allow the maintenance of agricultural water use and environmental flows. Le changement climatique risque d’avoir des répercussions considérables sur l’agriculture irriguée. Les phénomènes climatiques extrêmes, tels que les sécheresses, risquent de devenir plus fréquents. Ces phénomènes sont mis en évidence dans les projections médianes du changement climatique établies pour le bassin de Murray–Darling, en Australie. Pour comprendre les répercussions du changement climatique sur le rendement des cultures irriguées, il faut disposer d’une représentation explicite des changements spatiaux qui touchent les stocks naturels (c.‐à‐d. l’approvisionnement en eau) et de leur variabilité temporelle (c.‐à‐d. les états de la nature de la fréquence de la sécheresse) et assurer une gestion active des stocks de capital grâce à des stratégies d’atténuation et d’adaptation selon l’état de la nature. Une variation de la fréquence des sécheresses entraînera une modification de l’allocation des terres et de l’eau entre les activités de production. Dans le présent article, nous avons utilisé un modèle de simulation états‐contingences pour analyser les répercussions des stratégies d’atténuation du changement climatique et d’adaptation à ce changement. En l’absence de stratégies d’atténuation, le changement climatique aura des répercussions défavorables sur l’agriculture irriguée dans le Bassin. Toutefois, des stratégies d’atténuation combinées à des stratégies d’adaptation comprenant des changements dans l’utilisation des terres et de l’eau permettront de maintenir l’utilisation de l’eau à des fins agricoles et les débits environnementaux.
It is likely that climate change will be associated with reductions in inflows of water to the Murray-Darling Basin. In this study, we analyse the effects of climate change in the Murray-Darling Basin using a simulation model that incorporates a state-contingent representation of uncertainty. The severity of the impact depends, in large measure, on the extent to which climate change is manifested as an increase in the frequency of drought conditions. Adaptation will partially offset the adverse impact of climate change.
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