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* I thank the editor, an anonymous referee, and Michael Moran (Daiwa USA). Research support was provided by John Carroll University. 1. More recently, Aggarwal and Mohanty (2000) provide a similar analysis of five Japanese macroeconomic indicators and their survey forecasts using MMS data. They find that the survey forecasts of the trade balance, retail sales, the M1 measure of the money stock, and housing starts are generally cointegrated with factor one with the actual announcements and are rational. The survey forecast for industrial production is found to be biased and inconsistent with rational expectations.

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This paper examines the nature of lifecycle intellectual contributions (publication productivity and quality) of prolific scholars in finance, i.e., those that have published twelve or more scholarly papers in finance journals. Like other scholars, their productivity increases dramatically in the years before tenure and early success seems to be a useful forecast of future quality and quantity of publications. However, unlike the average finance Ph.D., these role models begin publishing earlier and they maintain a high level of productivity over long periods with productivity appearing to decline only slightly after tenure. Further, there is increasing tendency to publish with co-authors and there is high concentration of these prolific scholars especially at the five top-rated finance journals. Our findings have important implications for aspiring new finance professors. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007Scholarly publishing, Finance careers, Role models, Lotka's Power law, Academic life cycles,

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