Research Question Did a 15-min patrol delivery over 1 day reduce serious violent crime in large hot spots (mean size = 2 km × 2 km), without displacing such crimes to nearby areas? Data We tracked daily official crime reports in a sample of 21 high-crime Bedfordshire (UK) Lower-layer Super Output areas (LSOAs). We measured time spent by two-person police foot patrols in those areas with daily GPS data from handheld devices given to officers working on overtime. We also counted proactively initiated arrests. Methods We used a crossover randomised controlled trial on the 21 “hot spot” LSOAs, each of which was randomly assigned daily to be either in a treatment condition of 15-min of patrol (as one of seven each day) or a control condition of no patrol (as one of 14 each day) for each of 90 days. We used an intention-to-treat framework to analyse the impact of patrols on the outcome measures overall, on consecutive days of assignment to the same condition, and in 100-m ‘buffer’ zones around each hot spot. Findings We found that on treatment days the hot spots had 44% lower Cambridge crime harm index scores from serious violence than on control days, as well as 40% fewer incidents across all public crimes against personal victims. Statistically significant differences in lower prevalence, counts and harm of both non-domestic violent crime and robbery and other non-domestic crimes against personal victims were also found. We found no evidence of either displacement of serious crime into a 100-m buffer zone, nor any evidence of residual deterrence on no-patrol days following patrol days. We did find evidence of a cumulative effect: the largest differences in crime harm on control days were found in treatment days that came after 3 days of consecutive patrol in the same LSOA. Conclusions Even minimal amounts of foot patrol can prevent serious violent crime across a large area, and repeated patrols over several days help even more. Our findings suggest that, to reduce both violent and other forms of crime, uniformed officers need to patrol hot spots for short amounts of times on consecutive days.

Background Many approaches to violence reduction are currently being applied across England. As interest in contextual and thematic responses to violence has increased, so have questions about the relationship between approaches that seek to affect the environments in which violence occurs. We sought to outline the collective potential of three of the most common approaches (contextual safeguarding, public health, and problem-solving policing) and produce an instrument to help practitioners to understand how could these approaches be used collectively at a local level.Methods Colleagues with expertise in, or who were national leads for, public health, contextual safeguarding, and problem-solving approaches formed a professional consensus panel to define the three approaches in practice, the steps required to combine them, and the benefits and challenges of each. The group met virtually for 90-120 min/month between September, 2020, and March, 2021. A panel consensus was reached about how to describe each approach. Ideas were developed and refined independently between meetings through application of approaches to case studies and model development. A practitioner toolkit that set out the findings of the group was co-produced by the professional consensus panel. The practitioner toolkit was distributed to and presented at professional networks. Local authorities were invited to pilot a combined system reform approach, to check how combining the approaches might work in practice.Findings One of the major findings was that theoretical approaches are often not used as intended by those who created them. The panel showed the similarities and co-dependencies of the approaches and proposed models of using them together in practice. The production of a practitioner toolkit has clarified what the fundamentals of each approach are and provided a space where similarities and differences can be seen. The practitioner resource has received positive feedback and discussions have started in one local authority area to pilot a system approach.Interpretation To our knowledge, this is the first time a collection of approaches has been brought together to understand their collective benefit in potentially reducing violence. This work provides a foundation for a pilot intervention to assess the effect of combining these approaches on reducing violence.Funding This project has not received funding from any external organisation or group. The organisations involved have given leave to their members to attend meetings and engage in work related to this group. The South Yorkshire Violence Reduction Unit provided funds to commission a graphic artist to support the presentation of this project.