IMPORTANCE
Several factors are associated with increased hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplantation (LT), but no reliable risk score has been established to determine the individual risk for HCC recurrence.
OBJECTIVE
We aimed to develop and validate a Risk Estimation of Tumor Recurrence After Transplant (RETREAT) score for patients with HCC meeting Milan criteria by imaging.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS
Predictors of recurrence were tested in a development cohort of 721 patients who underwent LT between 2002 and 2012 at 3 academic transplant centers (University of California–San Francisco; Mayo Clinic, Rochester; and Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville) to create the RETREAT score. This was subsequently validated in a cohort of 341 patients also meeting Milan criteria by imaging who underwent LT at the University of Toronto transplant center using the C concordance statistic and net reclassification index.
MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES
Characteristics associated with post-LT HCC recurrence.
RESULTS
A total of 1061 patients participated in the study; 77.8%(825) were men, and the median (IQR) age was 58.2 (53.3–63.9) years in the development cohort and 56.4 (51.7–61.0) years in the validation cohort (P < .001). In the development cohort of 721 patients (542 men), median α-fetoprotein (AFP) level at the time of LT was 8.3 ng/mL; 9.4% had microvascular invasion (n = 68), and 22.1% were beyond Milan criteria on explant (n = 159) owing to understaging by pretransplantation imaging. Cumulative probabilities of HCC recurrence at 1 and 5 years were 5.7% and 12.8%, respectively. On multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression, 3 variables were independently associated with HCC recurrence: microvascular invasion, AFP at time of LT, and the sum of the largest viable tumor diameter and number of viable tumors on explant. The RETREAT score was created using these 3 variables, with scores ranging from 0 to 5 or higher that were highly predictive of HCC recurrence (C statistic, 0.77). RETREAT was able to stratify 5-year post-LT recurrence risk ranging from less than 3%with a score of 0 to greater than 75% with a score of 5 or higher. The validation cohort (n = 340; 283 men) had significantly higher microvascular invasion (23.8% [n = 81], P < .001), explant beyond Milan criteria (37.3% [n = 159], P < .001), and HCC recurrence at 5 years (17.9% [n = 159], P = .03). RETREAT showed good model discrimination (C statistic, 0.82; 95%CI, 0.77–0.86) and superior recurrence risk classification compared with explant Milan criteria (net reclassification index, 0.40; P = .001) in the validation cohort.
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE
We have developed and validated a simple and novel prognostic score that may improve post-LT HCC surveillance strategies and help identify patients who may benefit from future adjuvant therapies.
Inactivation of the beta4 subunit of the calcium channel in the mouse neurological mutant lethargic results in a complex neurological disorder that includes absence epilepsy and ataxia. To determine the role of the calcium-channel beta4-subunit gene CACNB4 on chromosome 2q22-23 in related human disorders, we screened for mutations in small pedigrees with familial epilepsy and ataxia. The premature-termination mutation R482X was identified in a patient with juvenile myoclonic epilepsy. The R482X protein lacks the 38 C-terminal amino acids containing part of an interaction domain for the alpha1 subunit. The missense mutation C104F was identified both in a German family with generalized epilepsy and praxis-induced seizures and in a French Canadian family with episodic ataxia. These coding mutations were not detected in 255 unaffected control individuals (510 chromosomes), and they may be considered candidate disease mutations. The results of functional tests of the truncated protein R482X in Xenopus laevis oocytes demonstrated a small decrease in the fast time constant for inactivation of the cotransfected alpha1 subunit. Further studies will be required to evaluate the in vivo consequences of these mutations. We also describe eight noncoding single-nucleotide substitutions, two of which are present at polymorphic frequency, and a previously unrecognized first intron of CACNB4 that interrupts exon 1 at codon 21.
The national outcomes for DCD LT have improved over the last 12 years. This change was associated with modifications in both recipient and donor selection. Furthermore, an era effect was observed, even after adjustment for all recipient and donor variables on multivariate analysis.
Bridging LRT in HCC patients within MC does not improve post-LT survival or HCC recurrence in the majority of patients who fail to achieve cPR. The need for increasing LRT treatments and lack of alphafetoprotein response to LRT independently predict post-LT recurrence, serving as a surrogate for underlying tumor biology which can be utilized for prioritization of HCC LT candidates.
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