The effects of the Uruguay Round are quantified using a numerical general equilibrium model which incorporates increasing returns to scale,  regions,  commodities, and steady state growth effects. We conclude that the aggregate welfare gains from the Round are in the order of $ billion per year in the short run, but could be as high as $ billion per year in the long run after capital stocks have optimally adjusted. Despite these global gains, we identify some developing countries that lose from the Round in the short run. In the long run, almost all gain, and the Round will allow developing countries to gain further through their own unilateral liberalisation. .  -  We begin with a presentation of our ' base ' model, which is static CRTS with  regions and  production sectors in each region, listed in Table . In order to assess the consequences of regional aggregation, for some simulations we also employ a -region aggregation of the base model.Except for tariff data discussed below, the data employed to calibrate the model come primarily from the GTAP database for  (Version ) # Royal Economic Society     [ " The elasticities of substitution for these value added production functions are taken from Harrison, Rutherford and Wooton ( ; table , p. ), which are unpublished estimates by Harrison, Jones, Kimbell and Wigle () from time-series data for the United Stated between  and . Contrary to many of the estimates employed in the CGE literature, the econometric specification used in this case corresponds to the functional form assumed in the model. # The available econometric evidence suggests values which are much lower than these (see Reinert and Roland-Holst () and Shiells and Reinert ()). But elasticities would be expected to increase over time, and this model assesses an adjustment of about  years, a rather long period in the context of these econometric estimates. # Royal Economic Society     [ ) We report welfare as a percentage of full GDP, where GDP is derived from the GTAP database. In Harrison, Rutherford and Tarr () welfare changes were reported as a percentage of private consumption, and hence were therefore somewhat higher. # Royal Economic Society  "! See Yongzheng et al. () and Tarr () for formal derivations of the welfare analysis. "" This is likely an overestimate of LDC quota rent losses from MFA elimination to the extent that it ignores rent dissipation costs in LDCs associated with these quota rents. See Hamilton (), Trela and Whalley ( b) and Tarr () for applied discussions of rent dissipation.

Foreign producer services can provide substantial benefits for domestic firms. We build on earlier monopolistic-competition models of intermediate producer services in this paper. Results show that: (1) while foreign services are partial-equilibrium substitutes for domestic skilled labour, they may be general-equilibrium complements, (2) service trade can provide crucial missing inputs that reverse comparative advantage in final goods, (3) the 'optimal' tax on imported services may be a subsidy, and (4) in our dynamic formulation, there may be earnings losses for immobile workers along a transition path that suggest potentially important equity consequences of reform. JEL classification: F12, F16, F23Commerce international et investissement direct dans les services de production et le marche´inte´rieur de l'expertise. Les services de production en provenance de l'e´tranger peuvent engendrer des avantages substantiels pour les entreprises domestiques. Dans ce me´moire, les auteurs construisent sur la base de certains mode`les ante´rieurs de concurrence monopolistique de services de production interme´diaires. Les re´sultats montrent que: (1) alors que les services de l'e´tranger sont des substituts pour le travail domestique spe´cialise´en e´quilibre partiel, en e´quilibre ge´ne´ral, ils peuvent eˆtre des comple´ments; (2) le commerce de services peut fournir des intrants cruciaux qui manquent et ce faisant renverser les avantages comparatifs dans les produits finaux; (3) la fiscalite´optimale impose´e sur les services importe´s peut eˆtre une subvention; et (4) dans la formulation dynamique du mode`le, il peut y avoir perte de revenus pour les travailleurs immobiles le long du sentier de transition, ce qui sugge`re qu'il peut y avoir des conse´quences importantes au plan de l'e´quite´associe´es a`certaines re´formes.We thank an anonymous referee of this journal for helpful comments. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the World Bank or its executive directors. Markusen is also affiliated with the NBER, CEPR, and CEBR (Copenhagen).

We employ a computable general equilibrium comparative static model of the Russian economy to assess the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on income distribution and the poor. Our model is innovative in that we incorporate all 55,000 households from the Russian Household Budget Survey as "real" households in the model. This was accomplished due to our development of a new algorithm for solving general equilibrium models with a large number of agents. In addition, this is the first paper to include foreign direct investment and Dixit-Stiglitz endogenous productivity effects in trade and poverty analysis. In the medium term, we find that virtually all households gain from Russian WTO accession, with 99.9 percent of the estimated gains falling within a range between 2 and 25 percent increases in household income. We show that our estimates are decisively affected by liberalization of barriers against foreign direct investment in business services sectors and endogenous productivity effects in business services and goods. We use our integrated model to assess the error associated with a "top down" approach to micro-simulation. We find that approximation errors introduced by failing to account for income effects in the conventional sequential approach are very small. However, data reconciliation between the national accounts and the household budget survey is important to the results. Despite the estimated gains for virtually all households in the medium term, many households may lose in the short term due to the costs of transition. Thus, safety nets are crucial for the poorest members of society during the transition. * This work originated from a request by the Government of Russia to the World Bank for development of a methodology to assess the impact of WTO accession on poverty and social issues in Russia. We thank Jesper Jensen for help with this paper;

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In this paper a computable general equilibrium model of the Russian economy is used to assess the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), which encompasses improved market access, Russian tariff reduction, and reduction of barriers against multinational service providers. It is assumed that foreign direct investment in business services is necessary for multinationals to compete well with Russian business services providers, but cross-border service provision is also present. The model incorporates productivity effects in both goods and services markets endogenously, through a Dixit-Stiglitz framework. It is estimated that Russia will gain about 7.2% of the value of Russian consumption in the medium term from WTO accession and up to 24% in the long run. It is also estimated that the largest gains to Russia will derive from liberalization of barriers against multinational service providers. Piecemeal and systematic sensitivity analysis shows that the results are robust. Copyright � 2007 The Authors; Journal compilation � 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.