A method for space event characterization using the framework of conceptual spaces will be illustrated in this paper. The focus of this paper is on estimating the likelihood of a collisions between space objects. Specifically, an approach is developed for anticipatory decision support for space operators so that preventative actions can be taken based on the assessment of relative risk. The conceptual space approach will draw on fusion of both hard and soft data into a single decision framework. The fusion-based approach presented in this paper for decision support extends the conceptual space framework with a set of ontologies by drawing on the space domain ontologies, which is a large system of ontologies designed to support aspects of space situational awareness. This framework is coupled with a mathematical optimization approach, providing a quantitative basis for ranking the potential for collision across multiple satellite pairs. The goal is to provide the broadest possible information foundation for critical assessments of collision likelihood.

The overall goal of the approach developed in this paper is to estimate the likelihood of a given kinetic kill scenario between hostile space based adversaries using the mathematical framework of Complex Conceptual Spaces Single Observation. Conceptual spaces are a cognitive model that provide a method for systematically and automatically mimicking human decision making. For accurate decisions to be made, the fusion of both hard and soft data into a single decision framework is required. This presents several challenges to this data fusion framework. The first is the challenge involved in handling multiple complex terminologies, which is addressed by drawing on a set of Space Domain Ontologies. Another challenge is the complex combinatorics involved when considering all possible feature combinations. This can be mitigated by using integer linear programming optimization that is outlined by the Complex Conceptual Spaces Single Observation mathematical model framework. A third challenge is the complicated physics that is involved in a spacecraft collision that must be addressed to obtain a better understanding of threat assessment. Overcoming these various challenges allows for a quantitative ranking for the potential of a kinetic kill collision across multiple spacecraft pairs. In addition to overcoming these challenges this paper will break down threat assessment into four domains and identify a ranking of threat both for each individual domain and for the four domains combined. Simulation results are shown to verify the developed concepts.

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