Using data on Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI), we find a positive relationship between higher tax burden and OECD residents' tax evasion, especially via tax havens. Contrary to established investor preference for certain country characteristics, we find they are less important to tax evaders who value privacy and want to remain undetected by their home tax authorities. We find very limited evidence that OECD Tax Information Exchange Agreements (TIEAS) reduce tax evasion, controlling for other determinants of overall OECD FPI. Without the US in the OECD sample, tax havens play a lesser role and OECD policies appear to make a marginal impact.Keywords: tax haven, tax evasion, foreign portfolio investment, tax information exchange agreements, OECD JEL classification: F38, G38, H26We thank John Doukas and an anonymous referee for very helpful comments and suggestions on an earlier draft.

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Shiller's (2005) prediction of the current global crisis followed from two key observations: (i) the recent housing booms in the United States and other advanced countries were not explained by economic fundamentals; and (ii) historically similar financial booms eventually collapsed, leading to recession. This article provides an empirical framework linking Shiller's (2005) observations and crisis prediction. We utilize vector error correction models and panel probit and logit models to show that tracking a single variable, real house prices, was sufficient to predict the current global crisis.