There are inefficiencies in current approaches to monitoring patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa. Patients typically attend clinics every 1–3 months for clinical assessment, with clinic costs being comparable with costs of drugs themselves, CD4 counts are measured every 6 months, yet patients are rarely switched to second-line therapies. To ensure sustainability of treatment programmes a transition to more cost-effective ART deliver is needed. In contrast to the CD4 count, measurement of the level of HIV RNA in plasma (“viral load”) provides a direct measure of current treatment effect. Viral load informed differentiated care is a means of tailoring care whereby those with suppressed viral load have less frequent clinical visits and attention is paid to those with unsuppressed viral load to promote adherence and timely switching to a second-line regimen. The most feasible approach in many countries to measure viral load is by collecting dried blood spot (DBS) samples for testing in regional laboratories, although there have been concerns over the sensitivity/specificity of DBS to define treatment failure and the delay in receiving results. We use modelling to synthesize available evidence and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of viral load-informed differentiated care, account for limitations of DBS. We find that viral load-informed differentiated care using DBS is expected to be cost-effective and is recommended as the strategy for patient monitoring, although further empirical evidence as the approach is rolled out would be of value. We also explore the potential benefits of future availability of point-of-care (POC) viral load tests.

Introduction:Direct measurement of antiretroviral treatment (ART) program indicators essential for evidence-based planning and evaluation – especially HIV incidence, population viral load, and ART eligibility – is rare in sub-Saharan Africa.Design/methods:To measure key indicators in rural western Kenya, an area with high HIV burden, we conducted a population survey in September to November 2012 via multistage cluster sampling, recruiting everyone aged 15–59 years living in 3330 randomly selected households. Consenting individuals were interviewed and tested for HIV at home. Participants testing positive were assessed for CD4+ cell count and viral load, and their infections classified as either recent or long term based on Limiting Antigen Avidity assays. HIV-negative participants were tested by nucleic acid amplification to detect acute infections.Results:Of 6833 household members eligible for the study, 6076 (94.7% of all women and 81.0% of men) agreed to participate. HIV prevalence and incidence were 24.1% [95% confidence interval [CI] 23.0–25.2] and 1.9 new cases/100 person-years (95% CI 1.1–2.7), respectively. Among HIV-positive participants, 59.4% (95% CI 56.8–61.9) were previously diagnosed, 53.1% (95% CI 50.5–55.7) were receiving care, and 39.7% (95% CI 37.1–42.4) had viral load less than 1000 copies/ml. Applying 2013 WHO recommendations for ART initiation increased the proportion of ART-eligible people from 60.0% (based on national guidelines in place during the survey; 95% CI 57.3–62.7) to 82.0% (95% CI 79.5–84.5). Among HIV-positive people not receiving ART, viral load increased with decreasing CD4+ cell count (500–749 vs. ≥750 cells/μl, adjusted mean difference, 0.40 log10 copies/ml, 95% CI 0.20–0.60, P < 0.01).Conclusion:This study demonstrates how population-level data can help optimize HIV programs. Based on these results, new regional programs are prioritizing diagnosis and expanding ART eligibility, key steps to reach undetectable viral load.

BackgroundThe Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has developed an ambitious strategy to end the AIDS epidemic. After eight years of antiretroviral therapy (ART) program we assessed progress towards the UNAIDS 90–90-90 targets in Mbongolwane and Eshowe, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional household-based community survey using a two-stage stratified cluster probability sampling strategy. Persons aged 15–59 years were eligible. We used face-to-face interviewer-administered questionnaires to collect information on history of HIV testing and care. Rapid HIV testing was performed on site and venous blood specimens collected from HIV-positive participants for antiretroviral drug presence test, CD4 count and viral load. At the time of the survey the CD4 threshold for ART initiation was 350 cells/μL. We calculated progression towards the 90–90-90 UNAIDS targets by estimating three proportions: HIV positive individuals who knew their status (first 90), those diagnosed who were on ART (second 90), and those on ART who were virally suppressed (third 90).ResultsWe included 5649/6688 (84.5%) individuals. Median age was 26 years (IQR: 19–40), 62.3% were women. HIV prevalence was 25.2% (95% CI: 23.6–26.9): 30.9% (95% CI: 29.0–32.9) in women; 15.9% (95% CI: 14.0–18.0) in men. Overall progress towards the 90–90-90 targets was as follows: 76.4% (95% CI: 74.1–78.6) knew their status, 69.9% (95% CI: 67.0–72.7) of those who knew their status were on ART and 93.1% (95% CI: 91.0–94.8) of those on ART were virally suppressed. By sex, progress towards the 90–90-90 targets was: 79%–71%–93% among women; and 68%–68%–92% among men (p-values of women and men comparisons were < 0.001, 0.443 and 0.584 respectively). By age, progress was: 83%–75%–95% among individuals aged 30–59 years and 64%–58%–89% among those aged 15–29 years (p-values of age groups comparisons were < 0.001, < 0.001 and 0.011 respectively).ConclusionsIn this context of high HIV prevalence, significant progress has been achieved with regards to reaching the UNAIDS 90–90-90 targets. The third 90, viral suppression in people on ART, was achieved among women and men. However, gaps persist in HIV diagnosis and ART coverage particularly in men and individuals younger than 30 years. Achieving 90–90-90 is feasible but requires additional investment to reach youth and men.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-5208-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

BackgroundHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains an important cause of hospitalization and death in low- and middle- income countries. Yet morbidity and in-hospital mortality patterns remain poorly characterized, with prior antiretroviral therapy (ART) exposure and treatment failure status largely unknown.MethodsWe studied HIV-infected inpatients aged ≥13 years from cohorts in Kenya and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), assessing clinical and demographic characteristics and hospitalization outcomes. Kenyan inpatients were prospectively enrolled during hospitalization; identical retrospective data were extracted for Congolese patients meeting the study criteria using routine medical information.ResultsAmong 338 HIV-infected patients in Kenya and 411 in DRC, 83.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 79.4%–87.3%) and 97.3% (95% CI, 95.2%–98.5%), were admitted with advanced disease (defined as CD4 <200 cells/µL or World Health Organization stage 3/4 illness). Among inpatients with advanced HIV, 35.4% and 21.7% were ART-naive at admission. Patients under care had a median time of 44.1 (interquartile range [IQR], 18.4–90.5) months and 55.9 (IQR, 28.1–99.6) months on treatment; 17.2% (95% CI, 13.5%–21.6%) and 29.6% (95% CI, 25.4%–34.3%) died, 25.9% (95% CI, 16.0%–39.0%) and 22.5% (95% CI, 15.8%–31.0%) of these within 48 hours.ConclusionsAcross 2 diverse clinical contexts in sub-Saharan Africa, advanced HIV inpatients were frequently admitted with low CD4 counts, often failing first-line ART. Earlier identification of treatment failure and rapid switching to second-line ART are needed.

IntroductionThe antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme supported by Médecins Sans Frontières in the rural Malawian district of Chiradzulu was one of the first in sub-Saharan Africa to scale up ART delivery in 2002. After more than a decade of continuous involvement, we conducted a population survey to evaluate the cascade of care, including population viral load, in the district.MethodsA cross-sectional household-based survey was conducted between February and May 2013. Using a multistage cluster sampling method, we recruited all individuals aged 15 to 59 years living in 4125 randomly selected households. Each consenting individual was interviewed and tested for HIV at home. All participants who tested positive had their CD4 count and viral load measured. The LAg-Avidity assay was used to distinguish recent from long-term infections. Viral suppression was defined as a viral load below 1000 copies/mL.ResultsOf 8271 individuals eligible for the study, 7269 agreed to participate and were tested for HIV (94.1% inclusion for women and 80.3% for men). Overall HIV prevalence and incidence were 17.0% (95% CI 16.1 to 17.9) and 0.39 new cases per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.0 to 0.77), respectively. Coverage at the other steps along the HIV care cascade was as follows: 76.7% (95% CI 74.4 to 79.1) had been previously diagnosed, 71.2% (95% CI 68.6 to 73.6) were under care and 65.8% (95% CI 62.8 to 68.2) were receiving ART. Finally, the proportion of participants who were HIV positive with a viral load ≤1000 copies/mL reached 61.8% (95% CI 59.0 to 64.5).ConclusionsThis study demonstrates that a high level of population viral suppression and low incidence can be achieved in high HIV prevalence and resource-limited settings.