To characterize the nature of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in different regions of the Pacific have been used. An optimal characterization of both the distinct character and the evolution of each El Niño or La Niña event is suggested that requires at least two indices: (i) SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region (referred to as N3.4), and (ii) a new index termed here the Trans-Niño Index (TNI), which is given by the difference in normalized anomalies of SST between Niño-1ϩ2 and Niño-4 regions. The first index can be thought of as the mean SST throughout the equatorial Pacific east of the date line and the second index is the gradient in SST across the same region. Consequently, they are approximately orthogonal. TNI leads N3.4 by 3 to 12 months prior to the climate shift in 1976/77 and also follows N3.4 but with opposite sign 3 to 12 months later. However, after 1976/77, the sign of the TNI leads and lags are reversed.
The origins of the delayed increases in global surface temperature accompanying El Niño events and the implications for the role of diabatic processes in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are explored. The evolution of global mean surface temperatures, zonal means and fields of sea surface temperatures, land surface temperatures, precipitation, outgoing longwave radiation, vertically integrated diabatic heating and divergence of atmospheric energy transports, and ocean heat content in the Pacific is documented using correlation and regression analysis. For 1950–1998, ENSO linearly accounts for 0.06°C of global surface temperature increase. Warming events peak 3 months after SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region, somewhat less than is found in previous studies. Warming at the surface progressively extends to about ±30° latitude with lags of several months. While the development of ocean heat content anomalies resembles that of the delayed oscillator paradigm, the damping of anomalies through heat fluxes into the atmosphere introduces a substantial diabatic component to the discharge and recharge of the ocean heat content. However, most of the delayed warming outside of the tropical Pacific comes from persistent changes in atmospheric circulation forced from the tropical Pacific. A major part of the ocean heat loss to the atmosphere is through evaporation and thus is realized in the atmosphere as latent heating in precipitation, which drives teleconnections. Reduced precipitation and increased solar radiation in Australia, Southeast Asia, parts of Africa, and northern South America contribute to surface warming that peaks several months after the El Niño event. Teleconnections contribute to the extensive warming over Alaska and western Canada through a deeper Aleutian low and stronger southerly flow into these regions 0–12 months later. The 1976/1977 climate shift and the effects of two major volcanic eruptions in the past 2 decades are reflected in different evolution of ENSO events. At the surface, for 1979–1998 the warming in the central equatorial Pacific develops from the west and progresses eastward, while for 1950–1978 the anomalous warming begins along the coast of South America and spreads westward. The eastern Pacific south of the equator warms 4–8 months later for 1979–1998 but cools from 1950 to 1978.
Vertically integrated atmospheric energy and heat budgets are presented with a focus on the zonal mean transports and divergences of dry static energy, latent energy, their sum (the moist static energy), and the total (which includes kinetic energy), as well as their partitioning into the within-month transient and quasi-stationary components. The latter includes the long-term mean and interannual variability from 1979 to 2001 and, in the Tropics, corresponds to the large-scale overturning global monsoon and the embedded Hadley and Walker circulations. In the extratropics, it includes the quasi-stationary planetary waves, which are primarily a factor in the Northern Hemisphere winter. In addition to the mean annual cycle, results are presented for the interannual variability. In the extratropics, poleward transports of both latent and dry static energy reinforce one another. However, the results highlight strong cancellations between the transports of latent and dry static energy in the Tropics as moisture is converted into latent heat, and also between quasi-stationary and transient components in the extratropics. Hence the total energy transports and divergences are fairly seamless with latitude and the total interannual variability is substantially less than that of the components. The strong interplay between the transient and quasi-stationary waves in the atmosphere highlights the symbiotic relationship between them, as the stationary waves determine the location and intensity of the storm tracks while the transient disturbances help maintain the stationary waves. These results highlight that observationally there is a very strong constraint that the global energy budget places on atmospheric dynamics.
Comprehensive diagnostic comparisons and evaluations have been carried out with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalyses of the vertically integrated atmospheric energy budgets. For 1979 to 1993 the focus is on the monthly means of the divergence of the atmospheric energy transports. For February 1985 to April 1989, when there are reliable top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) radiation data from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), the implied monthly mean surfacē uxes are derived and compared with those from the assimilating models and from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (COADS), both locally and zonally integrated, to deduce the implied ocean meridional heat transports.While broadscale aspects and some details of both the divergence of atmospheric energy and the surface¯ux climatological means are reproducible, especially in the zonal means, dierences are also readily apparent. Systematic dierences are typically $20 W m À2 . The evaluation highlights the poor results over land. Land imbalances indicate local errors in the divergence of the atmospheric energy transports for monthly means on scales of 500 km (T31) of 30 W m À2 in both reanalyses and $50 W m À2 in areas of high topography and over Antarctica for NCEP/NCAR. Over the oceans in the extratropics, the monthly mean anomaly time series of the vertically integrated total energy divergence from the two reanalyses correspond reasonably well, with correlations exceeding 0.7. A common monthly mean climate signal of about 40 W m À2 is inferred along with local errors of 25 to 30 W m À2 in most extratropical regions.Except for large scales, there is no useful common signal in the tropics, and reproducibility is especially poor in regions of active convection and where stratocumulus prevails. Although time series of monthly anomalies of surface bulk¯uxes from the two models and COADS agree very well over the northern extratropical oceans, the total ®elds all contain large systematic biases which make them unsuitable for determining ocean heat transports. TOA biases in absorbed shortwave, outgoing longwave and net radiation from both reanalysis models are substantial (>20 W m À2 in the tropics) and indicate that clouds are a primary source of problems in the model¯uxes, both at the surface and the TOA. Time series of monthly COADS surface¯uxes are shown to be unreliable south of about 20 N where there are fewer than 25 observations per 5 square per month. Only the derived surface¯uxes give reasonable implied meridional ocean heat transports.
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