No abstract

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with substantial morbidity, especially when it goes undetected. If new-onset AF could be predicted, targeted screening could be used to find it early. We hypothesized that a deep neural network could predict new-onset AF from the resting 12-lead ECG and that this prediction may help identify those at risk of AF-related stroke. Methods: We used 1.6 M resting 12-lead digital ECG traces from 430 000 patients collected from 1984 to 2019. Deep neural networks were trained to predict new-onset AF (within 1 year) in patients without a history of AF. Performance was evaluated using areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve and precision-recall curve. We performed an incidence-free survival analysis for a period of 30 years following the ECG stratified by model predictions. To simulate real-world deployment, we trained a separate model using all ECGs before 2010 and evaluated model performance on a test set of ECGs from 2010 through 2014 that were linked to our stroke registry. We identified the patients at risk for AF-related stroke among those predicted to be high risk for AF by the model at different prediction thresholds. Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the precision-recall curve were 0.85 and 0.22, respectively, for predicting new-onset AF within 1 year of an ECG. The hazard ratio for the predicted high- versus low-risk groups over a 30-year span was 7.2 (95% CI, 6.9–7.6). In a simulated deployment scenario, the model predicted new-onset AF at 1 year with a sensitivity of 69% and specificity of 81%. The number needed to screen to find 1 new case of AF was 9. This model predicted patients at high risk for new-onset AF in 62% of all patients who experienced an AF-related stroke within 3 years of the index ECG. Conclusions: Deep learning can predict new-onset AF from the 12-lead ECG in patients with no previous history of AF. This prediction may help identify patients at risk for AF-related strokes.

Cardiometabolic diseases are the leading cause of death worldwide. Despite a known genetic component, our understanding of these diseases remains incomplete. Here we analyzed the contribution of rare variants to 57 diseases and 26 cardiometabolic traits, using data from 200,337 UK Biobank participants with whole-exome sequencing. We identified 57 gene-based associations, with broad replication of novel signals in Geisinger MyCode. There was a striking risk associated with mutations in known Mendelian disease genes, including MYBPC3 , LDLR , GCK , PKD1 and TTN . Many genes showed independent convergence of rare and common variant evidence, including an association between GIGYF1 and type 2 diabetes. We identified several large-effect associations for height, and 18 unique genes associated with blood lipid or glucose levels. Finally, we found that between 1.0 and 2.4% of participants carried rare potentially pathogenic variants for cardiometabolic disorders. These findings may facilitate studies aimed at therapeutics and screening of these common disorders.

A large number of cellular level abnormalities have been identified in the hippocampus of schizophrenic subjects. Nonetheless, it remains uncertain how these pathologies interact at a system level to create clinical symptoms, and this has hindered the development of more effective antipsychotic medications. Using a 72-processor supercomputer, we created a tissue level hippocampal simulation, featuring multicompartmental neuron models with multiple ion channel subtypes and synaptic channels with realistic temporal dynamics. As an index of the schizophrenic phenotype, we used the specific inability of the model to attune to 40 Hz (gamma band) stimulation, a well-characterized abnormality in schizophrenia. We examined several possible combinations of putatively schizophrenogenic cellular lesions by systematically varying model parameters representing NMDA channel function, dendritic spine density, and GABA system integrity, conducting 910 trials in total. Two discrete “clusters” of neuropathological changes were identified. The most robust was characterized by co-occurring modest reductions in NMDA system function (-30%) and dendritic spine density (-30%). Another set of lesions had greater NMDA hypofunction along with low level GABA system dysregulation. To the schizophrenic model, we applied the effects of 1,500 virtual medications, which were implemented by varying five model parameters, independently, in a graded manner; the effects of known drugs were also applied. The simulation accurately distinguished agents that are known to lack clinical efficacy, and identified novel mechanisms (e.g., decrease in AMPA conductance decay time constant, increase in projection strength of calretinin-positive interneurons) and combinations of mechanisms that could re-equilibrate model behavior. These findings shed light on the mechanistic links between schizophrenic neuropathology and the gamma band oscillatory abnormalities observed in the illness. As such, they generate specific falsifiable hypotheses, which can guide postmortem and other laboratory research. Significantly, this work also suggests specific non-obvious targets for potential pharmacologic agents.