Rivalry in trade between China and its regional neighbours in ASEAN has become a major preoccupation for many regional policy‐makers. For these reasons, strengthening the basis of empirical evidence on regional trade relations is especially important, and this paper does so in two ways. Using very detailed historical trade data, we combine econometric and trade flow analysis to elucidate patterns of export competition and underlying comparative advantage for ASEAN and China. Our findings indicate that the potential exists for both export rivalry and more extensive trade complementarity, but so do many challenges for policy makers who seek to mitigate adjustment costs and facilitate long term efficiency. Our econometric results indicate that, in the short run at least, ASEAN and China are experiencing intensified export competition in prominent third markets such as Japan and the US. More extensive trade flow analysis reveals, however, that in the long run globalisation can accommodate export growth by all the economies of East Asia, if aggregate growth can be sustained to facilitate the structural adjustments necessary for an optimal regional division of labour.