In this paper we present an account of a 3-year research project that is aimed at dynamically simulating urban and regional populations in Britain. In the context of this project we are using data from the 1991 UK Census Small Area Statistics (SAS) and the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), in order to dynamically simulate the entire population of Britain into 2021 at the small area level. This paper discusses the structure, aims and objectives of SimBritain and presents some preliminary results. Firstly, alternative spatial microsimulation strategies are discussed and their advantages and drawbacks are outlined. Next, the difficulties in calibrating and validating dynamic microsimulation models such as SimBritain are highlighted and ways to tackle these difficulties are explored. The paper then presents some model outputs that highlight the geographical variation of a wide range of socio-economic variables through the 1990s. Moreover, in light of these outputs, the paper discusses the potential of SimBritain for policy analysis.

The concept of a neighbourhood effect within British voting patterns has largely been discarded, because no data have been available for testing it at the appropriate spatial scales. To undertake such tests, bespoke neighbourhoods have been created around the home of each respondent to the 1997 British Election Study survey in England and Wales, and small-area census data have been assembled for these to depict the socio-economic characteristics of voters' local contexts. Analyses of voting in these small areas, divided into five equal-sized status areas, provides very strong evidence that members of each social class were much more likely to vote Labour than Conservative in the low-status than in the high-status areas. This is entirely consistent with the concept of the neighbourhood effect, but alternative explanations are feasible. The data provide very strong evidence of micro-geographical variations in voting patterns, for which further research is necessary to identify the processes involved.The class cleavage within the British electorate has been waning for over four decades, since Crewe and his colleagues first charted its onset: 1 its death notice was posted by Sanders in 1997. 2 In place of the once enduring relationship between class and voting, studies of recent British general elections, and also of inter-election voting intentions, have focused on economic voting modelswith considerable success. In this article, we return to the class cleavage, but do so by looking at it in a spatially disaggregated way, taking up ideas suggested by Miller in the 1970s. 3 We show that micro-scale patterns of voting at the 1997 general election in England and Wales are entirely consistent with the now * Iain MacAllister is in the

In this article, we use a dynamic spatial microsimulation model of Britain for the analysis of the geographical impact of policies that have been implemented in Britain in the last 10 years. In particular, we show how spatial microsimulation can be used to estimate the geographical and socio-economic impact of the following policy developments: introduction of the minimum wage, winter fuel payments, working families tax credits, and new child and working credits. This analysis is carried out with the use of the SimBritain model, which is a product of a 3-year research project aimed at dynamically simulating urban and regional populations in Britain. SimBritain projections are based on a method that uses small area data from past Censuses of the British population in order to estimate small-area data for 2001, 2011, and 2021.

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