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Prior research has demonstrated higher value relevance of current earnings during economic expansions relative to contractions. We largely attribute such a result to expected growth prospects being captured in the current earnings coefficient when a direct proxy for expected future earnings is omitted from the returns-earnings model. We demonstrate that the conservatism and value relevance of current earnings is actually higher during economic contractions when including a proxy for future earnings expectations. We further demonstrate that the value-relevance of expected future earnings is higher during expansions, when the association between historical accounting information and future growth opportunities likely weakens. Copyright (c) 2009 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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We investigate the relative roles of key components of earnings change in explaining the value relevance of earnings across different life‐cycle stages of the firm. We hypothesize that firms in different life‐cycle stages take different strategic actions: change in sales is emphasized in the growth and mature stages, while in later stages, profitability is emphasized. Because payoffs to such strategies vary across the life‐cycle, the stock market reaction to the success firms have in employing these strategic actions is likely to vary across the life‐cycle. To test our hypotheses, we disaggregate changes in earnings into three key components: earnings change from change in sales, earnings change from change in profitability, and an interaction term comprising both sales change and profitability change. Our findings are consistent with our hypotheses: when firms are in the growth stage, the value‐relevance of change in sales is relatively greater than that of change in profitability. In the mature stage, the value relevance of change in profitability increases, relative to that of change in sales. When firms are in stagnant stage, the value‐relevance of changes in profitability are relatively greater than that of change in sales. Collectively, the results demonstrate a shift in the value relevance of earnings components from a growth emphasis early in the life‐cycle to a profitability emphasis later in the life‐cycle.