Background
The global burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) is unknown.
Methods and Results
We systematically reviewed population-based studies of AF published 1980–2010, from the 21 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions to estimate global/regional prevalence, incidence, as well as morbidity and mortality related to AF (DisModMR software). Of 377 potential studies identified, 184 met pre-specified eligibility criteria. The estimated number of individuals with AF globally in 2010 was 33·5 million [(20·9 million males (UI, 19·5–22·2 million) and 12·6 million females (UI, 12·0–13·7 million)]. Burden associated with AF, measured as disability adjusted life-years (DALYs), increased by 18·8% (UI, 15·8–19·3) in males and 18·9% (UI, 15·8–23·5) in females, from 1990 to 2010. In 1990, the estimated age-adjusted prevalence rates of AF (per 100,000 population) were 569·5 in males [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 532·8–612·7] and 359·9 in females (UI, 334·7–392·6); the estimated age-adjusted incidence rates were 60·7/100,000 person-years in males (UI, 49·2–78·5) and 43·8 in females (UI, 35·9–55·0). In 2010 the prevalence rate increased to 596·2 (UI, 558·4–636·7) in males and 373·1 (UI, 347·9–402·2) in females; incidence rate increased to 77·5 (UI, 65·2–95·4) in males and 59·5 (UI, 49·9–74·9) in females. Mortality associated with AF was higher in females, and increased by 2-fold (UI, 2·0–2·2) and 1·9-fold (UI, 1·8–2·0) in males and females, respectively, from 1990 to 2010.
Conclusions
These findings provide evidence of progressive increases in overall burden, incidence, prevalence and AF-associated mortality between 1990–2010. Systematic, global surveillance of AF is required to better direct prevention and treatment strategies.
