Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed are important for a wide range of applications, ranging from operational decision making in connection with wind power generation to storm warnings, ship routing and aviation. We present a statistical method that provides locally calibrated, probabilistic wind speed forecasts at any desired place within the forecast domain based on the output of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Three approaches for wind speed post-processing are proposed, which use either truncated normal, gamma or truncated logistic distributions to make probabilistic predictions about future observations conditional on the forecasts of an ensemble prediction system (EPS). In order to provide probabilistic forecasts on a grid, predictive distributions that were calibrated with local wind speed observations need to be interpolated. We study several interpolation schemes that combine geostatistical methods with local information on annual mean wind speeds, and evaluate the proposed methodology with surface wind speed forecasts over Germany from the COSMO-DE (Consortium for Small-scale Modelling) ensemble prediction system.

Dancing with Broken Bones: Poverty, Race, and Spirit-filled Dying in the Inner City David Wendell Moller Dancing with Broken Bones gives voice and face to a vulnerable and disempowered population whose stories often remain untold: the urban dying poor. Drawing on complex issues surrounding poverty, class, and race, Moller illuminates the unique sufferings that often remain unknown and hidden within a culture of broad invisibility. He demonstrates how a complex array of factors, such as mistrust of physicians, regrettable indignities in care, and inadequate communication among providers, patients, and families, shape the experience of the dying poor in the inner city. This book challenges readers to look at reality in a different way. Demystifying stereotypes that surround poverty, Moller illuminates how faith, remarkable optimism, and an unassailable spirit provide strength and courage to the dying poor. Dancing with Broken Bones serves as a rallying call for compassionate individuals everywhere to understand and respond to the needs of the especially vulnerable, yet inspiring, people who comprise the world of the inner city dying poor.

No abstract

No abstract

The United States health system has been criticized for its overuse of aggressive and medically ineffective life-sustaining therapies (LST).1 Some professional societies have elevated dialog about end-of-life (EOL) care to a quality measure,2 expecting that more open discussion will achieve more “goal-concordant care”3 and appropriate use of LST. However, even when Advanced Directives (AD) or Physician Orders for Life-Sustaining Therapy (POLST) have been created, their directions are not always followed in the hospital. This perspective discusses how preventable errors allow for use of LST even when patients designated it as unwanted. Two cases, chosen from several similar ones, are highlighted, demonstrating both human and system errors.