Background: Oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) has a very poor prognosis, which is largely due to late diagnosis. Successful early detection strategies will require identification of clinically relevant precursor lesions that can be targets for screening and treatment. Aims: To identify the clinically relevant histological precursors of OSCC. Subjects: A cohort of 682 endoscoped patients from a high risk rural population in Linxian, China. Methods: Subjects were endoscoped and biopsied at baseline and followed for 13.5 years. We estimated the relative risk of developing OSCC for each of the initial histological diagnoses using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Results: A total of 114 (16.7%) patients developed OSCC during the follow up period. After adjusting for potential confounding factors, relative risks (95% confidence intervals) for incidence of this tumour, by initial histological diagnosis, were: normal 1.0 (reference), oesophagitis 0.8 (0.2-3.2), basal cell hyperplasia 1.9 (0.8-4.5), mild dysplasia 2.9 (1.6-5.2), moderate dysplasia 9.8 (5.3-18.3), severe dysplasia 28.3 (15.3-52.3), and carcinoma in situ 34.4 (16.6-71.4). Conclusions: In this study, squamous dysplasia and carcinoma in situ were the only histological lesions associated with a significantly increased risk of developing OSCC within 13.5 years after endoscopy. There was no evidence that oesophagitis predisposed to this tumour. Increasing grades of dysplasia were strongly associated with increasing risk, indicating that the histological grading was clinically meaningful. The follow up experience of severe dysplasia and carcinoma in situ was equivalent, suggesting that this distinction is not clinically relevant. Documenting these precursor lesions of OSCC should assist in the development of effective prevention, early detection, and treatment strategies for this disease.

In a cohort of 29 584 residents of Linxian, China, followed from 1985 to 2001, we conducted a case -cohort study of the magnitude of the association of Helicobacter pylori seropositivity with cancer risk in a random sample of 300 oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas, 600 gastric cardia adenocarcinomas, all 363 diagnosed gastric non-cardia adenocarcinomas, and a random sample of the entire cohort (N ¼ 1050). Baseline serum was evaluated for IgG antibodies to whole-cell and CagA H. pylori antigens by enzymelinked immunosorbent assay. Risks of both gastric cardia and non-cardia cancers were increased in individuals exposed to H. pylori (Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals ¼ 1.64; 1.26 -2.14, and 1.60; 1.15 -2.21, respectively), whereas risk of oesophageal squamous cell cancer was not affected (1.17; 0.88 -1.57). For both cardia and non-cardia cancers, HRs were higher in younger individuals. With longer time between serum collection to cancer diagnosis, associations became stronger for cardia cancers but weaker for non-cardia cancers. CagA positivity did not modify these associations. The associations between H. pylori exposure and gastric cardia and non-cardia adenocarcinoma development were equally strong, in contrast to Western countries, perhaps due to the absence of Barrett's oesophagus and oesophageal adenocarcinomas in Linxian, making all cardia tumours of gastric origin, rather than a mixture of gastric and oesophageal malignancies.

Background: Oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is a common cancer worldwide and has a very high mortality rate. Squamous dysplasia is the precursor lesion for OSCC and it can be seen during routine endoscopy with Lugol's iodine staining. We aimed to examine the risk factors for squamous dysplasia and determine if a risk model could be constructed which would be useful in selecting apparently healthy subjects for endoscopic screening in a high risk population in Linzhou, People's Republic of China. Subjects and methods: In this cross sectional study, 724 adult volunteers aged 40-65 years were enrolled. All subjects completed a questionnaire regarding potential environmental exposures, received physical and dental examinations, and underwent upper endoscopy with Lugol's iodine staining and biopsy. Subjects were categorised as having or not having histologically proven squamous dysplasia/early cancer. Risk factors for dysplasia were examined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. The utility of the final multivariate model as a screening tool was assessed using a receiver operating characteristics curve. Results: We found that 230 of 720 subjects (32%) with complete data had prevalent squamous dysplasia. In the final multivariate model, more household members (odds ratio (OR) 1.12/member (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.99, 1.25)), a family history of cancer (OR 1.57 (95% CI 1.13-2.18)), higher systolic blood pressure OR 1.11/10 mm Hg (95% CI 1.03-1.19)), heating the home without a chimney (OR 2.22 (95% CI 1.27-3.86)), and having lost more but not all of your teeth (OR 1.91 for 12-31 teeth lost (95% CI 1.17-3.15)) were associated with higher odds of having dysplasia. Higher household income (OR 0.96/ 100 RMB (95% CI 0.91-1.00)) was associated with a lower odds of having dysplasia. Although we found several statistically significant associations, the final model had little ability to accurately predict dysplasia status, with maximum simultaneous sensitivity and specificity values of 57% and 54%, respectively. Conclusions: We found that risk factors for dysplasia were similar to those previously identified as risk factors for OSCC in this population. The final model did a poor job of identifying subjects who had squamous dysplasia. Other methods will need to be developed to triage individuals to endoscopy in this high risk population.

We prospectively examined the relation between pretrial serum vitamin D status and risk of oesophageal and gastric cancers among subjects who developed cancer over 5.25 years of follow-up, including 545 oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas (ESCC), 353 gastric cardia adenocarcinomas, 81 gastric noncardia adenocarcinomas, and an age-and sex-stratified random sample of 1105 subjects. The distribution of serum 25(OH)D was calculated using the known sampling weights. For the cohort as a whole, the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile concentrations of 25(OH)-vitamin D were 19.6, 31.9, and 48.7 nmol l À1 , respectively, and we found that higher serum 25(OH)D concentrations were associated with monotonically increasing risk of ESCC in men, but not in women. Comparing men in the fourth quartile of serum 25(OH)D concentrations to those in the first, we found a hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval (CI)) of 1.77 (1.16 -2.70), P trend ¼ 0.0033. The same comparison in women had a HR (95% CI) of 1.06 (0.71 -1.59), P trend ¼ 0.70. We found no associations for gastric cardia or noncardia adenocarcinoma. Among subjects with low vitamin D status, higher serum 25(OH)D concentrations were associated with significantly increased risk of ESCC in men, but not in women. Further refinements of the analysis did not suggest any factors, which could explain this unexpected result.

Oesophageal cancer is the second most common cause of cancer death in China and is particularly prevalent in northern China. Genetic factors have been studied less than environmental factors in the aetiology of this disease. This study was conducted to evaluate familial aggregation of oesophageal cancer. All households in Yangcheng County were interviewed in 1979 to determine family history of oesophageal cancer. In 1989, vital status for all family members from three Yangcheng villages was determined and re-interviews were conducted among families who reported a positive family history of oesophageal cancer in 1979. Risk of oesophageal cancer was evaluated by comparing family and individual rates of oesophageal cancer during the 1979-1989 interval stratified by the number of family members with oesophageal cancer prior to 1979. More families with prior oesophageal cancer history reported new oesophageal cancer deaths during the follow-up period than families without prior history (19% versus 5%). Oesophageal cancer rates increased with increasing positivity of family history, and adjustment for other risk factors did not substantially alter this result. We conclude that these data provide evidence for familial aggregation of oesophageal cancer.