This paper presents several epidemic cycles of COVID-19 that have practically ended in countries, states and cities and normalize them through simple and well-known numerical methods. It is evident that there is a practically universal pattern between them, in a triangular shape. It is also possible to find similar cycles with very close scales and thus use cases with cycles already closed to predict the end of the cycles still in progress. Three methods are presented and discussed and the case of the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, is presented in more detail.

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In the present study, we provide a retrospective genomic epidemiology analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We gathered publicly available data from GISAD and sequenced more 1,927 new genomes sampled periodically from March 2021 to June 2021 from 91 out of the 92 cities of the state. Our results showed that the pandemic was characterized by three different phases driven by a successive replacement of lineages. All stages occurred in distinct mortality and mobility contexts, with higher evidence of social distancing measures being observed in early pandemic and relaxed in the last two phases. Interestingly, we noticed that viral supercarriers accounted for the overwhelming majority of the circulating virus (> 90%) among symptomatic individuals in the state. Moreover, SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance also revealed the emergence and spread of two new variants (P.5 and P.1.2) firstly reported in this study. Altogether, our findings provided important lessons learned from the different epidemiological aspects of the SARS-CoV-2 dynamic in the state of Rio de Janeiro that have a strong potential to shape future decisions aiming to improve public health management and understanding mechanisms underlying virus dispersion.

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