This article simultaneously investigates the hysteresis hypothesis of unemployment and labour force participation using regional level data in Australia. The conventional univariate and panel unit root tests indicate that the hysteresis hypothesis cannot be rejected for most of the regions in Australia. To further confirm if the hysteresis finding in unemployment and labour force participation results from not considering structural breaks. We employ a panel stationarity test recently developed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2005), which considers multiple structural breaks and cross-sectional dependence. The test results lend support for unemployment hysteresis and participation regime-wise stationarity. Accordingly, the findings imply that a temporary shock may have permanent effects on the unemployment rate but not on labour force participation in Australia and thus call for policies aimed at improving the adjustment mechanism in unemployment.
This paper uses both univariate and multivariate Markov‐switching models to explore the characteristics of the regional business cycle phases in Taiwan. In particular, this paper provides novel evidence regarding the “turning‐point identification” puzzle in Taiwan that to date has not been fully resolved. We find that the regime‐switching behaviour of the common regional business cycle is consistent (or even precedes recession) with the business cycle expansion and contraction indicators used by the Council for Economic Planning and Development. This finding suggests that the common regional business cycle identifies the turning point after the 1990s. This finding also suggests that the employment growth index would be a great indicator for monitoring the business cycle in Taiwan.
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