This article addresses the question of validating the homogeneous Lanchestrian square law of attrition by the use of historical data (and by extension, other attrition models). Validating an attrition model means testing that model against reality. In this case, Lanchester's square law is tested against the data from the Inchon‐Seoul campaign of the Korean War. The data are examined using three analysis techniques: linear regression, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bozdogan's Consistent AIC (CAIC). The data do not fit the assumption of a single, constant coefficient, homogeneous square law battle. The data do fit a set of three such battles (a new one every six or seven days); however, the data fit three constant‐casualty‐model battles just as well. The homogeneous Lanchester square law cannot be regarded as a proven attrition algorithm for warfare; however, the square law cannot be regarded as disproved either. Data on more battles are required to validate the square law or any other proposed attrition law. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

The Lanchester square and linear laws do not provide good models of combat attrition as evidenced in historical data. A particular homogeneous, mixed, linear‐logarithmic law, however, does provide a good approximation to the historical data. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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This report documents research performed to determine the requirements for new or improved analysis tools to support decisions at the strategic and operational levels for military Operations Other than War (OOTW). The work was performed for the Commander in Chief, U.S. Pacific Command (USCINCPAC). BACKGROUND Over the past several years, there has been an increasing recognition of the need for analysis tools to support planning and execution of military OOTWs. Analysis tools to support decision-making for large-scale military. operations (such as major regional contingencies) are relatively mature. In contrast, OOTW analysis tools are embryonic or nonexistent. Because the U.S. military involvement in OOTWs is expected to be increasingly frequent during the post-Cold-War era, development of OOTW analysis tools should receive higher priority than continued enhancement of analysis tools for large-scale military operations. PURPOSE This report describes the results of the first phase in a multi-phase effort to develop the analysis tools for OOTW. Specifically, this report identifies requirements for OOTW analysis tools, based primarily on two workshops sponsored by USCINCPAC. The primary purpose of the project is to influence the development of OOTW analysis capabilities within the Joint Warfare System (JWARS), which is being developed under the sponsorship of the Office of the Secretary of Defense (Program Analysis & Evaluation). However, current plans for J W A R S development do not call for OOTW analysis capabilities to be incorporated for several years. Hence, a secondary purpose is to identify opportunities for developing interim OOTW analysis capabilities, including exploratory tools for possible incorporation into JWARS. SCOPE The scope of this report is to identify functional requirements for OOTW analysis tools and to provide the necessary details for personnel working on succeeding phases of the effort. Based on similarities of requirements across different kinds of OOTW, the similarity of tasks performed, and assessments of the maturity of analysis methods and availability of data to support tool development, the requirements have been tentatively grouped into ten generic tools, as described below under Conclusions and Recommendations. Within the body of the report, each of these generic tools is analyzed with respect to similarities and differences across kinds of OOTW, OOTW attribute impacts, required tasks, and methods/data availability. These requirements, generic tools, and analyses will form the basis for a Military Operations Research Society (MORS) workshop on OOTW analysis tools, which will be held in January 1997. The MORS workshop will focus on specific approaches to meeting the requirements identified here. PROCESS As mentioned above, the requirements identified here largely reflect the insights obtained at two USCINCPAC-sponsored workshops. These workshops were hosted by the US. Naval Postgraduate School and attended by representatives of the O f f i c e of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint ...