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The authors analysed the current situation and considered future scenarios. Achieving a just transition will be difficult. Several reasons contribute to this. First, neoliberalism is a specific phase of economic development and is socially embedded in society (see Chapter 1). Policymakers need to take both these arguments into account to counter these embedded realities. Second, an approach towards a just transition requires mining companies to understand that investment is required at the back end of the mine life-cycle. Mining companies have a responsibility to assist with the transition. Thirdly, a just transition also requires local governance, accountability and finance. Fourthly, an active approach to dealing with the consequences of the decline. At the bottom of all, this approach acknowledges the negative side of mine closure.

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Many South African secondary cities depend on a single economic sector, often mining or manufacturing. This makes them vulnerable to economic change and national decision-making. We describe change in three secondary cities—Emalahleni, Matjhabeng and Newcastle—all at different phases of economic transition due to imminent mine closure. We investigate the way local governance and planning are dealing with the change. We draw on concepts from institutional economics and evolutionary governance theory, material from strategic planning documents, and approximately 50 key informant interviews. We show how difficult it is to steer economic planning during economic transitions, and we demonstrate how both economic change and governance are path-dependent. Path dependency in South Africa’s mining towns has several causes: the colonial influence, which emphasised extraction and neglected beneficiation; the dominance of a single sector; the long-term problems created by mining; and the lack of the skills needed to bring about economic change. The local governments’ continuing reliance on the New Public Management paradigm, which focuses on steering as opposed to building networks, compounds the problem, along with poor governance, inadequate local capacity and inappropriate intergovernmental relations. Of the three towns, only Newcastle has shown signs of taking a new path.