Emerging countries’ changing status on the global financial scene : from the 1997 asian crisis to the 2008 crisis
In the past ten years, the situation of emerging countries has evolved from that of net borrowers of capital to that of net lenders. Responsible for the 1997-98 financial crisis, these countries are now turning into collateral victims of the 2007-08 crisis that originated in the United States and Europe, despite remaining relatively unscathed at first. This article offers an analysis of emerging countries’ new status on the global financial scene with respect to industrialised countries and the IMF, as well as an interrogation on the coupling or decoupling of emerging countries’ economic cycles with those of industrialised countries. From a financial viewpoint, the 2008 crisis will certainly be considered by emerging countries as a common shock, whereas the 1997 Asian crises were not caused by common shocks. But the possibility of a cyclical decoupling has yet to be confirmed : it will depend on the depth of the US recession and on the continuing vitality of domestic demand in emerging countries.
Classification JEL : G01, G15, G21, G23, F33, F36.
This article investigates the impact of the internationalisation of emerging market currencies on original sin, which is the inability of emerging countries to borrow abroad in local currency. The objective is to assess the role of measures of internationalisation on the currency structure of debt for a set of emerging market countries. We show the favourable impact of the internationalisation process on original sin for the period 2005–2018 using two different measures with a dynamic panel data empirical analysis. The main determinants are the foreign exchange (FX) turnover of the currencies, the economic size of the issuing country, and the Volatility Index (VIX). In this way, we highlight network effects between the functions of a currency. The tests also highlight the existence of inertia in the use of a currency for financial transactions. Finally, the results provide evidence on the role of derivative instruments in supporting the use of emerging market currencies in bond markets.
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