A convenient and effective method based on vector analysis was proposed in this paper to quantitatively describe the pattern of the wind speed distribution curve. This method can accurately describe the steepness of the single-peak curve by using two parameters of concentration degree (CD) and concentration period (CP). Through the analysis of wind speed data in China over the past 40 years, this paper found that regional wind resources with larger CD were poorer, while regional wind resources with larger CP were richer. In addition, there were obvious cubic relationships between the CP and the average wind power density. These two parameters could reflect the richness of wind energy and realize the comparisons of wind resources across time and scales. In comparison with conventional approaches, this method is simpler and avoids fitting process, which has broad promotion prospects in the field of power grids.
The seasonal distribution characteristics of photovoltaic power plant output fluctuation are analyzed, and a short-term power forecasting method based on seasonal classification is proposed. Firstly, the seasonal distribution characteristics of photovoltaic output and its fluctuation are analyzed. Secondly, the forecasting model of photovoltaic output in different seasons is established by the Limit Learning Machine neural network. Finally, an empirical analysis is carried out by using photovoltaic output data. The results show that the seasonal classification method of short-term PV power forecast is better than the unclassified model.
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