Sebuah kebijakan publik akan efektif jika publik mendukungnya. Hal yang sama berlaku dalam konteks wabah  Covid-19. Sejauh ini belum ada studi tentang kebijakan pemerintah Indonesia, khususnya terkait Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar (PSBB), dan kepatuhan warga terhadapnya. Tulisan ini mengisi kekosongan tersebut dengan bertumpu pada hasil penelitian opini publik nasional tentang sikap dan perilaku publik terkait PSBB dan protokol kesehatan. Hasilnya adalah perilaku dan sikap pada kebijakan tersebut berhubungan dengan latar belakang perilaku politik, kepercayaan pada kemampuan pemerintah menangani Covid-19, status pekerjaan, pendapatan, pendidikan, agama, dan gender. PSBB tidak akan efektif karena jumlah warga yang harus bekerja di luar rumah sangat banyak. Sebaliknya, memberikan subsidi pada warga agar tidak bekerja selama pandemi tetapi tidak jelas kapan akan berakhir, tentu bukan kebijakan yang realistis. Untuk itu, kebijakan mengubah PSBB dengan kembali membolehkan warga bekerja seperti sebelum masa Covid-19 dan disertai protokol kesehatan yang ketat adalah solusi yang lebih realistis. Sosialisasi mendesaknya protokol kesehatan harus dilakukan lewat berbagai kelompok masyarakat dan lewat tokoh-tokoh berpengaruh karena mereka cenderung lebih didengar.

Many studies have been conducted about the presidential coattail effect in presidential democracies, but few have considered multiparty presidential elections. These few studies find that the effect does exist in multiparty presidential elections but their effect is unevenly distributed among the members of the party coalitions that nominate the presidential candidate. We follow these theoretical insights by presenting the case of Indonesia, the world’s largest multiparty presidential democracy. Using election result data and national survey data, including experimental surveys, we find that in Indonesia the size and direction of the presidential coattail effect depend on whether the party is a core or peripheral member of the coalition, its role in the coalition, and its size.

Abstract. Studies on the relationship between family politics and democracy are inconclusive. A number of studies suggest that family politics weakens democracy, and some other studies found that family politics does not matter to democracy, and some other works on the issue even reveals that family politics strenghthens democracy. This article is to report the result of a study about the relationships between family politics and democratic support and performance. Mass support for democracy is an indicator of democratic consolidation at the attitudinal level, and mass assessment of democratic performance is also crucial to the extent in which a democracy performs. In addition, this article addresses the issue how political knowledge of family politics predicts support for family politics. Lack of political knowledge among the massess in developing democracy is probably responsible for the support for family politics. This article relies on relevant data of a nation wide public opinion survey of the fourth largest electorate in the world, Indonesian voter. The findings of this study are: Indonesian voters are in general negative towards family politics; attitudes toward family politics do not matter to democratic support, but explain significantly assessment of democratic performance: negative attitude towards family politics decreases positive assessment of democratic performance. This pattern indicates a syndrome of critical citizens, i.e. political knowledge and education reject family politics which positively assesses democratic performance. Family politics does not demand a better democratic performance. Education does.Keywords: Democracy, democratic performance, family politics, critical citizen, political knowledge, education, Indonesia. Abstrak. Studi tentang hubungan antara dinasti politik dan demokrasi sejauh ini belum menghasilkan kesimpulan yang konklusif. Sejumlah penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dinasti politik telah melemahkan demokrasi, tapi sebagian penelitian yang lain menyebut dinasti politik tidak masalah bagi demokrasi, bahkan memperkuat demokrasi itu sendiri. Artikel ini menampilkan hasil kajian tentang hubungan antara dinasti politik dengan dukungan dan kinerja demokrasi. Dukungan publik terhadap demokrasi merupakan indikator konsolidasi demokrasi pada level sikap, dan penilaian massa terhadap kinerja demokrasi juga penting untuk menguji sejauh mana demokrasi bekerja. Selain itu, artikel ini mengangkat isu bagaimana pengetahuan politik tentang dinasti politik memprediksi dukungan terhadap politik kekeluargaan. Kurangnya pengetahuan politik warga di negara demokrasi yang sedang berkembang menjelaskan mengapa warga mendukung dinasti politik. Artikel ini menggunakan data survei opini publik nasional di negara yang memiliki jumlah penduduk terbesar keempat di dunia, yakni Indonesia. Temuan dari penelitian ini adalah: Pemilih Indonesia secara umum bersikap negatif terhadap dinasti politik. Meskipun sikap publik terhadap dinasti politik secara umum tidak berhubungan dengan dukungan terhadap demokrasi pada tataran normatif, tapi ia menjelaskan secara signifikan penilaian publik atas kinerja demokrasi: sikap negatif terhadap dinasti politik terbukti menurunkan penilaian positif atas kinerja demokrasi. Pola ini menunjukkan sindrom warga kritis, di antaranya mereka yang memiliki pengetahuan politik dan pendidikan baik— cenderung menolak dinasti politik, dan karenanya positif dalam menilai kinerja demokrasi. Dinasti politik tidak menuntut kinerja demokrasi yang lebih baik. Pendidikan justru sebaliknya.Kata Kunci: Demokrasi, kinerja demokrasi, dinasti politik, warga kritis, pengetahuan politik, pendidikan, Indonesia.

Statistical modelling faces problems when too many variables are involved in the model. Using all variables in the model will result in overfitting which in turn produces unstable predictions. LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) is a method that can be used to overcome this problem. LASSO selects more important variables with the goal of improving the prediction accuracy and interpretability. This paper identifies factors those influenced voters in 2019 presidential election using LASSO penalized logistic regression. This logistic model is also known as a discrete choice model. The data used in this study is the result of an exit poll conducted during the election day with a total sample of 2,289 respondents. The response variable in this study is a vote choice. The independent variables include sociological, psychological, political economy, and campaign variables. The results showed that there were 17 of 27 variables having nonzero coefficients. These variables include candidates’ personal qualities which show the largest effect, followed by the incumbent performance variable. On the other hand, variables such as religion, education, and ethnicity have much less effects. This implies that the psychological and political economy factors played more important role than the sociological factor in determining voters’ decision. Based on this finding the prospective candidate in the future election should focus their campaign strategy on enhancing positive images (empathy, integrity and capability) as well as offering better programs to convince voters.

Public opinion surveys are often used to predict an election result. However, the predictions are not always accurate due to many factors. The presence of swing voters at the time of survey is one of the sources of the inaccuracy. On the other hand, election surveys are also often conducted by using multi-stage random sampling method so that ordinary models such as logit model generally do not provide satisfactory results. The data, hence, is complex and may be approached by multilevel models. The study is conducted to assess the extent to which a prediction of swing voters’ vote choice through a multilevel logit model can improve survey accuracy. The data used in this study was the result of a survey conducted using stratified multistage random sampling method two weeks before the 2019 presidential election. The model with 15 predictors and random effects for villages and neighborhood providing 96.3% accuracy and AUC reached 99.1% in the validation process. Based on the final model, the swing voters in this survey were predicted to vote more for Candidate B (10.4%) than Candidate A (7.5%). The direction of the swing voters’ support different from the loyal voters who prefer Candidate A (49.1%) than Candidate B (33.0%). The prediction of swing voters’ vote choice using multilevel logit model significantly improved the survey accuracy. Before the swing voters’ support was predicted the absolute deviation between the survey result and the election result was quite large, around 6.4%-11.5%. After swing voters’ support was predicted the absolute difference shrank to 1.1%.