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Subject. This article deals with the control and management aspects of regional development on the basis of Leontief’s balance model. Objectives. The article aims to develop schemes for stable estimation of aggregate parameters of region balance models based on a shortened sample of input-output statistical data and rules for their subsequent regularization. Methods. For the study, we used multiple forms of regional economic balance model transformation based on the aggregation of data of the selected regional subsystems. Results. The primary estimates of aggregate input-output matrix for the southern regions of the Tyumen Oblast were obtained from the statistical input-output data for 2014–2018. To comply with the productivity conditions, additional information was introduced into the estimation algorithm reflecting the balance dependence for the reference input-output matrix for the Russian Federation and for the southern regions of the Tyumen Oblast in retrospective (2004–2013). Conclusions. The result of regularization of aggregate input-output matrix for the southern regions of the Tyumen Oblast obtained from the statistical input-output data on the basis of the least squares method indicates that the backward estimation technique cannot act as a basic tool for the primary construction of balance models of regional economies. However, backward estimation algorithms with subsequent regularization are effective in correcting the reference input-output matrix using actual data of the region’s socio-economic development.

Relevance. Monitoring has always been an important part of the management of regional development. Recently, this task has been gaining currency due to the development of modern information technologies of data collection and processing, citizen-government interaction and digital modelling. The task of goal evaluation, that is, comparison of the actual results with the intended ones in different spheres, among other things, requires us to build and adjust the macro-economic model of regional development and in particular to update the input-output matrix based on the region’s statistical data. Research objective. The study aims to build a table of input-output balance for the south of Tyumen region (Russia) based on the statistical data of standardized economic indicators. Method and data. Two options for estimating the input-output matrix for Tyumen region are described. In the first option, a well-known method of adjustment of the reference input-output matrix for the priority economic sectors of Tyumen region is supplemented by the regularization of the resulting parameters according to the least squares method for the selected period. The second option is based on the aggregation of industries by subsystems based on the cost structure table of the same industries, but for the entire country, followed by the identification of the already aggregated matrix, without adjusting the result to the standard. Results. In the first option, we obtained a table of input-output balance for 2018. The table quite accurately reproduces the invoice structure of costs and consumption. The aggregated input-output matrix, taking regularization into account, reproduces the actual costs of the region for 2016-2018 with good approximation. In the second option, the distribution of the resulting direct costs coefficients over the years does not exceed 10%. Conclusions. The resulting estimates of the Leontiev input-output matrices meet the requirements of productivity and balance and can be used in benchmark problems for the analysis and forecasting of the economic development of Tyumen region. A variation of the functional scheme for assessing and analyzing the discrepancies between the declared and actual trajectories of the indicators based on the Leontiev matrix is proposed.

Subject. Monitoring and predicting the trajectories of the development of regions on the basis of the Leontief balance model. Objectives. Development of the balance tables estimating schemes for the south of the Tyumen Oblast according to statistical data of typical economic indicators. Methods. Two options for solving the problem of estimating balance tables are considered. In the first variant the reference matrix of direct costs is adjusted to the statistical data of the system of national accounts for the Tyumen Oblast. The second variant is to use the industry cost structure for Russia to customize the regional table. Results. In the first approximation, the structure of aggregation of industries into subsystems was chosen in accordance with the development strategy of the Tyumen Oblast until 2030. The obtained images of the tables correspond to the balance ratios and productivity conditions of the Leontief matrix. Conclusions. The results of adjusting the input-output model for the south of the Tyumen Oblast according to the available statistical data in general demonstrate the efficiency of the presented methods for assessing direct cost matrices. The choice of the structure of aggregation of indicators in accordance with the development strategy of the region allows to compare the predicted and model trajectories of economic development for characteristic groups of industries.