There is a need for straightforward, novel diagnostic and monitoring technologies to enable the early diagnosis of COPD and its differentiation from other respiratory diseases, to establish the cause of acute exacerbations and to monitor disease progression. We sought to establish whether technologies already in development could potentially address these needs. A systematic horizon scanning review was undertaken to identify technologies in development from a wide range of commercial and non-commercial sources. Technologies were restricted to those likely to be available within 18 months, and then evaluated for degree of innovation, potential for impact, acceptability to users and likelihood of adoption by clinicians and patients with COPD. Eighty technologies were identified, of which 25 were considered particularly promising. Biomarker tests, particularly those using sputum or saliva samples and/or available at the point of care, were positively evaluated, with many offering novel approaches to early diagnosis and to determining the cause for acute exacerbations. Several wrist-worn devices and smartphone-based spirometers offering the facility for self-monitoring and early detection of exacerbations were also considered promising. The most promising identified technologies have the potential to improve COPD care and patient outcomes. Further research and evaluation activities should be focused on these technologies.

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ObjectivesRecent decades have witnessed the development of highly innovative new antiviral drug therapies. However, there are concerns that rising costs and lengthening development times could have implications for future patient access to innovative new drugs. We sought to establish whether the time taken for the clinical development of new antiviral drugs launched in the UK had increased since the 1980s.Design and settingRetrospective observational study of all new antiviral drugs licensed for use in the UK.Primary and secondary outcome measuresDuration of clinical development (from initiation of studies in humans to receipt of Marketing Authorisation), subdivided into clinical trial and regulatory approval periods by the date of Marketing Authorisation Application.Results48 new antiviral drugs were licensed for use in the UK between 1981 and 2014 (inclusive), over half (54%) initially for HIV infection. The overall mean duration of clinical development was 77.2 months, of which 64.6 months was spent in clinical trials before regulatory submission. The total time in clinical development increased from 41.7 months for drugs licensed 1981–1992 to 91.7 months for drugs licensed 2004–2014. This increase was accounted for by an increase in the clinical trials period and not the regulatory approval period, for which there was no observable trend. Drugs initially licensed to treat hepatitis C had a longer duration of clinical development than those indicated for other viral infections. However, the, initially shorter clinical development durations of drugs indicated for HIV infection increased more rapidly across the study period than those indicated for other viral infections.ConclusionsThe time spent by antiviral drugs in clinical development has increased markedly in recent decades despite many initiatives to speed access to innovative new drugs. However, this represents only one part of the translational research pathway, and a complete picture of development timeframes is lacking.

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