Aims To examine the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality in China and in key subpopulations, and to estimate the population-level risks attributable to 12 common modifiable risk factors for each outcome. Methods and results In this prospective cohort of 47 262 middle-aged participants from 115 urban and rural communities in 12 provinces of China, it was examined how CVD incidence and mortality rates varied by sex, by urban-rural area, and by region. In participants without prior CVD, population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for CVD and for death related to 12 common modifiable risk factors were assessed: four metabolic risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, abdominal obesity, and lipids), four behavioural risk factors (tobacco, alcohol, diet quality, and physical activity), education, depression, grip strength, and household air pollution. The mean age of the cohort was 51.1 years. 58.2% were female, 49.2% were from urban areas, and 59.6% were from the eastern region of China. The median follow-up duration was 11.9 years. The CVD was the leading cause of death in China (36%). The rates of CVD and death were 8.35 and 5.33 per 1000 person-years, respectively, with higher rates in men compared with women and in rural compared with urban areas. Death rates were higher in the central and western regions of China compared with the eastern region. The modifiable risk factors studied collectively contributed to 59% of the PAF for CVD and 56% of the PAF for death in China. Metabolic risk factors accounted for the largest proportion of CVD (PAF of 41.7%), and hypertension was the most important risk factor (25.0%), followed by low education (10.2%), high non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (7.8%), and abdominal obesity (6.9%). The largest risk factors for death were hypertension (10.8%), low education (10.5%), poor diet (8.3%), tobacco use (7.5%), and household air pollution (6.1%). Conclusion Both CVD and mortality are higher in men compared with women, and in rural compared with urban areas. Large reductions in CVD could potentially be achieved by controlling metabolic risk factors and improving education. Lowering mortality rates will require strategies addressing a broader range of risk factors.

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Purpose. To determine whether hypertriglyceridemic waist (HTGW) and high lipid accumulation product (LAP) preceded the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and to investigate the interactions of HTGW and LAP with other components of metabolic syndrome on the risk of T2DM. Methods. A total of 15,717 eligible participants without baseline T2DM and aged 35 and over were included from a Chinese rural cohort. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the association of HTGW and LAP with the incidence of T2DM, and the restricted cubic spline model was used to evaluate the dose-response association. Results. Overall, 867 new T2DM cases were diagnosed after 7.77 years of follow-up. Participants with HTGW had a higher hazard ratio for T2DM (hazard ratio (HR): 6.249, 95% confidence interval (CI): 5.199-7.511) after adjustment for potential confounders. The risk of incident T2DM was increased with quartiles 3 and 4 versus quartile 1 of LAP, and the adjusted HRs (95% CIs) were 2.903 (2.226-3.784) and 6.298 (4.911-8.077), respectively. There were additive interactions of HTGW (synergy index (SI): 1.678, 95% CI: 1.358-2.072) and high LAP (SI: 1.701, 95% CI: 1.406-2.059) with increased fasting plasma glucose (FPG) on the risk of T2DM. Additionally, a nonlinear ( P nonlinear < 0.001) dose-response association was found between LAP and T2DM. Conclusion. The subjects with HTGW and high LAP were at high risk of developing T2DM, and the association between LAP and the risk of T2DM may be nonlinear. Our study further demonstrates additive interactions of HTGW and high LAP with increased FPG on the risk of T2DM.

Smoking is an important modifiable factor in the risk of type 2 diabetes. Type 2 diabetes and hypertension overlap in the population. The present study investigated effects of smoking on glucose metabolism under different blood pressure (BP) levels in occupational population. A smoking survey among occupational groups was conducted in 2018. The general linear model was used to analyze the differences of glucose metabolism indexes and BP indexes influenced by different smoking intensity (never 0, mild <10, moderate <20, heavy ≥20 pack-years). Odds ratios of developing diabetes and β-cell deficiency were analyzed by using logistic regression model. BP was further taken into account in the relationship between smoking and glucose metabolism.As a result, 1730 male workers aged 21 to 60 years were included in the analysis finally. Compared to never smokers, heavy smokers had significantly increased fasting plasma glucose. Moderate and above smokers had significantly increased glycosylated hemoglobin, decreased fasting plasma insulin and β-cell function, after adjustment for covariates. Further, smoking intensity was found to have a dose-dependent relationship with impaired β-cell function and diabetes. In conclusion, smoking has a positive dose-dependent relationship with β-cell deficiency and diabetes. Male smoking workers, especially the moderate or higher smoking, with high-normal and high BP levels are at high risk of abnormal glucose metabolism.

This study aimed to identify the interaction of depression and diets on cardiovascular diseases (CVD) incident and death in China and key subpopulations. We included 40,925 participants from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE)-China cohort which recruited participants aged 35–70 years from 45 urban and 70 rural communities. Depression was measured by the adapted Short-Form (CIDI-SF). The unhealthy diet was considered when the score of Alternative Healthy Eating Index was below the lowest tertile. The primary outcome was a composite outcome of incident CVD and all-cause mortality. Cox frailty models were used to examine the associations. During a median follow-up of 11.9 years (IQR: 9.6–12.6 years), depression significantly increased the risk of the composite outcome (HR = 2.00; 95% CI, 1.16–3.27), major CVD (HR = 1.82; 95% CI, 1.48–2.23), and all-cause mortality (HR = 2.21; 95% CI, 1.51–3.24) for the unhealthy diet group, but not for the healthy diet group. The interaction between depression and diet for the composite outcome was statistically significant (RERI = 1.19; 95% CI, 0.66–1.72; AP = 0.42, 95% CI, 0.27–0.61; SI = 3.30, 95% CI, 1.42–7.66; multiplicative-scale = 1.74 95% CI, 1.27–2.39), even in the subgroup and sensitivity analyses. In addition, the intake of vegetable and polyunsaturated fatty acids contributed most to the interaction of diets and depression. Depressive participants should focus on healthy diets, especially vegetables and polyunsaturated fatty acids, to avoid premature death and CVD.