Summary1. The advent of spatially explicit capture-recapture models is changing the way ecologists analyse capturerecapture data. However, the advantages offered by these new models are not fully exploited because they can be difficult to implement. 2. To address this need, we developed a user-friendly software package, created within the R programming environment, called SPACECAP. This package implements Bayesian spatially explicit hierarchical models to analyse spatial capture-recapture data. 3. Given that a large number of field biologists prefer software with graphical user interfaces for analysing their data, SPACECAP is particularly useful as a tool to increase the adoption of Bayesian spatially explicit capturerecapture methods in practice.
With continued global changes, such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and habitat fragmentation, the need for assessment of long‐term population dynamics and population monitoring of threatened species is growing. One powerful way to estimate population size and dynamics is through capture–recapture methods. Spatial capture (SCR) models for open populations make efficient use of capture–recapture data, while being robust to design changes. Relatively few studies have implemented open SCR models, and to date, very few have explored potential issues in defining these models. We develop a series of simulation studies to examine the effects of the state‐space definition and between‐primary‐period movement models on demographic parameter estimation. We demonstrate the implications on a 10‐year camera‐trap study of tigers in India. The results of our simulation study show that movement biases survival estimates in open SCR models when little is known about between‐primary‐period movements of animals. The size of the state‐space delineation can also bias the estimates of survival in certain cases.We found that both the state‐space definition and the between‐primary‐period movement specification affected survival estimates in the analysis of the tiger dataset (posterior mean estimates of survival ranged from 0.71 to 0.89). In general, we suggest that open SCR models can provide an efficient and flexible framework for long‐term monitoring of populations; however, in many cases, realistic modeling of between‐primary‐period movements is crucial for unbiased estimates of survival and density.
Recovering small populations of threatened species is an important global conservation strategy. Monitoring the anticipated recovery, however, often relies on uncertain abundance indices rather than on rigorous demographic estimates. To counter the severe threat from poaching of wild tigers (Panthera tigris), the Government of Thailand established an intensive patrolling system in 2005 to protect and recover its largest source population in Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary. Concurrently, we assessed the dynamics of this tiger population over the next 8 years with rigorous photographic capture-recapture methods. From 2006 to 2012, we sampled across 624-1026 km(2) with 137-200 camera traps. Cameras deployed for 21,359 trap days yielded photographic records of 90 distinct individuals. We used closed model Bayesian spatial capture-recapture methods to estimate tiger abundances annually. Abundance estimates were integrated with likelihood-based open model analyses to estimate rates of annual and overall rates of survival, recruitment, and changes in abundance. Estimates of demographic parameters fluctuated widely: annual density ranged from 1.25 to 2.01 tigers/100 km(2) , abundance from 35 to 58 tigers, survival from 79.6% to 95.5%, and annual recruitment from 0 to 25 tigers. The number of distinct individuals photographed demonstrates the value of photographic capture-recapture methods for assessments of population dynamics in rare and elusive species that are identifiable from natural markings. Possibly because of poaching pressure, overall tiger densities at Huai Kha Khaeng were 82-90% lower than in ecologically comparable sites in India. However, intensified patrolling after 2006 appeared to reduce poaching and was correlated with marginal improvement in tiger survival and recruitment. Our results suggest that population recovery of low-density tiger populations may be slower than anticipated by current global strategies aimed at doubling the number of wild tigers in a decade.
Ecological densities of large herbivores were estimated using the line transect method in the tropical moist forests of Bhadra Tiger Reserve, southern India, during November 2000. The species of interest were chital Axis axis, sambar Cervus unicolor, muntjac Muntiacus muntjak, gaur Bos gaurus and Hanuman langur Presbytes entellus. Six permanent transects, ranging from 2.6 to 3.6 km (totalling 18.2 km) were each walked 26 times. A total of 473 km was walked during the surveys. Numbers of detections were generally low (51, 25, 68, 17 and 302 for chital, sambar, muntjac, gaur and langur, respectively). Mean estimated densities of different species were [ > D (± SE)]:4.51 (± 1.05) chital km −2 , 0.89 (± 0.23) sambar km −2 , 3.64 (± 0.63) muntjac km −2 , 1.48 (± 0.63) gaur km −2 and 22.62 (± 2.64) langur km −2 . Possible shortcomings of our estimates are considered and suggestions made for improving future surveys. A comparison with densities estimated for these species in other well-protected parks showed that the chital, gaur and sambar densities in Bhadra were extremely low. The main causal factors for these low densities seem to be poaching and livestock grazing.
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