This paper sets out an argument that Kuznets's hypothesis -either Kuznets curve or Kuznets waves -is testable and might only hold depending upon the context. In order to better understand the proposition of Kuznets and its relevance to Indonesia, it is necessary to consider what happens across long periods (la longue durée) and to comprehend how watershed events affect the economy and the distribution of wealth. Analysis in this paper relies on various data sources ranging from conventional economic indicators, historical archives, to literary works. Fluctuation and trends on Gini index in Indonesia might not be fully explained with Kuznets hypothesis although several aspects might influence inequality trends.

Purpose This paper aims to unpack the nexus of development and demography controlling for three important variables to represent the meaning of development, that is, poverty rate, unemployment rate and human development index (HDI). Demographic variables are proxied with total fertility rate (TFR) and net migration rate (NMR). Design/methodology/approach This research applies cluster analysis at the provincial level using INDO-DAPOER and 2015 Intercensal Population Survey data sets. Findings Demographic and development status of Indonesian provinces can be classified into four clusters, and members of these clusters are mostly dissimilar with those of previous groupings on demographic dividends (Adioetomo, 2018). With only less than 50% matching rate, the author argues that there is no simple linear relationship between demographic and development variables. Research limitations/implications The most recent data set on Population Census Year 2020 has not been made available at the time of the writing. Also sometimes known as unsupervised classification, cluster analysis is about finding groups in a set of objects characterised only by certain measurements; therefore, findings of this study need to be positioned solely within the context of development and demography. Practical implications Taxonomy in this study offers a more nuanced and contextual understanding of the diverse challenges at the local and regional levels. Recommendations from this study lead to asymmetrical design in development policies and budget proportions at local levels. Social implications It is expected that the findings are relevant to the input of policymaking process within the sphere of development and demography, especially for countries with significant size of populations and grappling with development issues. Originality/value To the author’s understanding, this paper is the first to discuss the impact of “demographic dividend” to economic development in Indonesia using the approach of cluster analysis. The expected contribution of this work is twofold: Firstly, the author would like to ignite a discourse on the nexus of development and demography using the most recent data set and cutting-edge method. Secondly, the findings are relevant to the input of policymaking process within the sphere of development and demography, especially for countries with significant size of populations and grappling with development issues.