An econometric model using time series analysis techniques is employed to model and forecast population changes in Doña Ana County, New Mexico. The model focuses on the interplay between economic and demographic variables. Individual, cointegrated equations are generated to account for the components of population change -births, deaths, net domestic and net international migration. Birth and death equations prove easier to model because of stable changes from period to period in relation to income levels and national demographic trends. Net migration equations were more difficult to model as economic conditions, specifically labor market conditions, influence changes over time. Predefined exogenous variables are used to generate out-of-sample simulations for the individual components of population change. Using those results, total population projections are estimated until the year 2018. Doña Ana County is projected to witness a slowdown in population growth, primarily as a consequence of increased domestic out-migration.
La reforma a la salud de 1993 (Ley 100) apuntó principalmente a dos objetivos: la universalización del sistema y la unificación de beneficios entre la población. En el presente trabajo se hace un análisis centrado en equidad, para la población rural-urbana, examinando las brechas de inequidad existentes en cuatro dimensiones: estado de salud, cobertura de aseguramiento social, utilización de servicios y calidad de servicios. La metodología empleada es la propuesta por O'Donnell et al. (2008). Los resultados, aunque evidencian un progreso en la cobertura de aseguramiento social, acceso a medicamentos y una mayor utilización de los servicios de salud; muestran aún brechas que afectan principalmente a la población más vulnerable, en los indicadores de auto percepción de salud, uso de servicios preventivos y tasas de afiliación al SGSSS.
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