Background. Measures of perceived effectiveness (PE) of ads have been validated to predict changes in cognitive precursors of quit attempts, but a relationship between PE and actual quit attempts has not been shown in population-based studies. We analyzed smokers' PE ratings of ads from the national Tips From Former Smokers (Tips) campaign to (1) establish the validity of PE in predicting quit attempts in a large, nationally representative sample of smokers; (2) identify behavioral and demographic correlates of PE among respondents; and (3) examine whether PE is influenced by matching the race/ethnicity of ad participants with that of the ad viewer. Methods. We used survey data from two waves (baseline and follow-up) of a longitudinal online cohort of adult U.S. cigarette smokers. Respondents were shown one or more of 14 Tips campaign ads and were asked to assess each ad in terms of PE. We used multivariate models to estimate the association between baseline PE and prospective quit attempts; cross-sectional associations between PE and various respondent characteristics, including race/ethnicity, desire to quit, and health conditions; and the association between race/ethnicity of respondents and Tips ad participants. Results. Higher PE at baseline was associated with increased odds of a quit attempt at follow-up. Higher PE scores were associated with non-Hispanic black race, Hispanic ethnicity, higher desire to quit, presence of a chronic health condition, and presence of a mental health condition. There was no relationship between PE scores and matched race/ethnicity of the respondent and Tips ad participants. Conclusions. This is the first study to demonstrate an association between PE scores for antismoking ads and prospective quit attempts in a large, nationally representative sample of smokers. Our findings also provide strong evidence that racial/ethnic minority subpopulations, including non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics, react more favorably to Tips campaign ads irrespective of race/ethnicity of the ad participant. This suggests that message characteristics (e.g., graphic visuals and emotional content) may play a more important role in PE than race/ethnicity of ad participants.

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Some topics suggested by the participants warrant further investigation. More research is needed to assess the pervasiveness of these beliefs and their potential utility for smoking cessation interventions.

In 2012, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention launched a national tobacco education campaign, Tips From Former Smokers, that consisted of graphic, emotionally evocative, testimonial-style advertisements. This longitudinal study examines changes in beliefs, tobacco-related cognitions and intentions to quit smoking among U.S. adult smokers after a 12-week airing of the campaign (n=4040 adult smokers pre- and post-campaign). Exposure to the campaign was associated with greater odds of intending to quit within the next 30 days [odds ratio (OR)=1.28, P < 0.01] and within the next 6 months (OR=1.12, P < 0.05), and quit intentions were stronger among respondents with greater campaign exposure (OR=1.12, P < 0.01). Campaign exposure was also associated with significant changes in beliefs about smoking-related risks (ORs=1.15–2.40) and increased worries about health (b=0.30, P < 0.001). Based on study change rates applied to U.S. census data, an estimated 566 000 additional U.S. smokers reported their intention to quit smoking within the next 6 months as a result of viewing campaign advertisements. Campaign effects were consistent with the theory of reasoned action and an expanding body of research demonstrating that graphic, emotional advertisements are highly effective for prompting positive cessation-related cognitions and behavioral intentions.

This study provides estimates of the long-term cumulative impact of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s national tobacco education campaign, Tips From Former Smokers (Tips), on population-level smoking cessation. We used recently published estimates of the association between increased Tips campaign media doses and quit attempts to calculate campaign-attributable population sustained (6-month) quits during 2012–2015. Tips led to approximately 522,000 sustained quits during 2012–2015. These findings indicate that the Tips campaign’s comprehensive approach to combining evidence-based messages with the promotion of cessation resources was successful in achieving substantial long-term cigarette cessation at the population level over multiple years.