Hare, J.A., Manderson, J.P., Nye, J.A., Alexander, M.A., Auster, P.J., Borggaard, D.L., Capotondi, A.M., Damon-Randall, K.B., Heupel, E., Mateo, I., O'Brien, L., Richardson, D.E., Stock, C.A., and Biege, S.T. 2012. Cusk (Brosme brosme) and climate change: assessing the threat to a candidate marine fish species under the US Endangered Species Act. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: 1753–1768. In the Northwest Atlantic Ocean cusk (Brosme brosme) has declined dramatically, primarily as a result of fishing activities. These declines have led to concern about its status, which has prompted reviews under the US Endangered Species Act and the Canadian Species at Risk Act. Changes in distribution and abundance of a number of marine fish in the Northwest Atlantic have been linked to climate variability and change, suggesting that both fishing and climate may affect the status of cusk. Our goal was to evaluate potential effects of climate change on Northwest Atlantic cusk distribution. Coupling a species niche model with the output from an ensemble of climate models, we projected cusk distribution in the future. Our results indicate cusk habitat in the region will shrink and fragment, which is a result of a spatial mismatch between high complexity seafloor habitat and suitable temperature. The importance of habitat patch connectivity for cusk is poorly understood, so the population-level consequences of climate-related habitat fragmentation are uncertain. More broadly, climate change may reduce appropriate thermal habitat and increase habitat fragmentation for other cold-water species in the region; thereby, increasing the potential for regional overexploitation and extirpation.

River herring—a collective name for the Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus and Blueback Herring A. aestivalis—play a crucial role in freshwater and marine ecosystems along the Eastern Seaboard of North America. River herring are anadromous and return to freshwater habitats in the tens to hundreds of millions to spawn, supplying food to many species and providing nutrients to freshwater ecosystems. After two and a half centuries of habitat loss, habitat degradation, and overfishing, river herring are at historic lows. In 2013, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries established the Technical Expert Working Group (TEWG) to synthesize information about river herring and to provide recommendations to advance the science related to their restoration. This paper was composed largely by the chairs of the TEWG subgroups and represents a review of the current state of knowledge of river herring, with an emphasis on identification of threats and discussion of recent research and management actions related to understanding and reducing these threats. Important research needs are then identified and discussed. Finally, current knowledge is synthesized, considering the relative importance of different threats. This synthesis identifies dam removal and increased stream connectivity as critical to river herring restoration. Better understanding and accounting for predation, climate change, and fisheries are also important for restoration. Finally, there is recent evidence that the effects of human development and contamination on habitat quality may be more important threats than previously recognized. Given the range of threats, an ecosystem approach is needed to be successful with river herring restoration. To facilitate this ecosystem approach, collaborative forums such as the TEWG (renamed the Atlantic Coast River Herring Collaborative Forum in 2020) are needed to share and synthesize information among river herring managers, researchers, and community groups from across the species’ range.

Aquatic species are threatened by climate change but have received comparatively less attention than terrestrial species. We gleaned key strategies for scientists and managers seeking to address climate change in aquatic conservation planning from the literature and existing knowledge. We address 3 categories of conservation effort that rely on scientific analysis and have particular application under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA): assessment of overall risk to a species; long-term recovery planning; and evaluation of effects of specific actions or perturbations. Fewer data are available for aquatic species to support these analyses, and climate effects on aquatic systems are poorly characterized. Thus, we recommend scientists conducting analyses supporting ESA decisions develop a conceptual model that links climate, habitat, ecosystem, and species response to changing conditions and use this model to organize analyses and future research. We recommend that current climate conditions are not appropriate for projections used in ESA analyses and that long-term projections of climate-change effects provide temporal context as a species-wide assessment provides spatial context. In these projections, climate change should not be discounted solely because the magnitude of projected change at a particular time is uncertain when directionality of climate change is clear. Identifying likely future habitat at the species scale will indicate key refuges and potential range shifts. However, the risks and benefits associated with errors in modeling future habitat are not equivalent. The ESA offers mechanisms for increasing the overall resilience and resistance of species to climate changes, including establishing recovery goals requiring increased genetic and phenotypic diversity, specifying critical habitat in areas not currently occupied but likely to become important, and using adaptive management. Incorporación de las Ciencias Climáticas en las Aplicaciones del Acta Estadunidense de Especies en Peligro para Especies Acuáticas.

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