This is a multination study of military disobedience in the face of presidential orders to suppress civilian uprisings. Rather than coercively manipulating the government or seizing power themselves, these insubordinate armies prefer to remain quartered. To determine why, the authors draw on rational, ideational, and structural analytical perspectives on military behavior. The study deploys a qualitative case study method of analysis, identifying seven positive cases (disobedience) and then contrasting those with three negative cases (obedience) to discern whether there is a collection of causal agents that can discriminate between these sets. It finds that disobedience grows out of material grievances, stronger affiliation with public as opposed to government interests, rejection of internal public order roles, illegalities, and splits within the services.

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ObjectiveAs peace agreements have increasingly been put to a popular vote in places such as Northern Ireland, South Sudan, and Colombia, there is a corresponding practical and theoretical interest in understanding what factors influence public opinion toward the peace? We contend that support for peace in Colombia, as in other postwar contexts, is most powerfully shaped by individuals’ assessments of two critical factors—the level of violence experienced and trust in the conflict actors. More specifically, we hypothesize that greater experience with violence by the conflict actors and greater levels of trust regarding these actors are the critical dimensions of support for peace.MethodsWe use a regression model of support for the Colombian peace agreement more generally, as well as voters' intentions regarding the peace agreement vote.ResultsWe find that support for peace is most heavily dependent on contextual violence and trust. However, those who most trusted the conflict actors were among those least likely to indicate they intended to vote, which may help explain why the peace referendum failed.ConclusionMaintaining public support for the Colombian peace agreement will depend on rebuilding trust and providing government security and assistance in previously marginalized areas.

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