This contribution studies the variation in desired family size and excess fertility in four East African countries by analyzing the combined impact of wealth, education, religious affiliation, and place of residence. The findings show an enormous heterogeneity in Kenya. Wealthy and higher educated people have fertility desires close to replacement level, regardless of religion, while poor, uneducated people, particularly those in Muslim communities, have virtually uncontrolled fertility. Rwanda is at the other extreme: poor, uneducated people have the same desired fertility as their wealthy, educated compatriots, regardless of their religion-a case of "poverty Malthusianism. ". The potential for family planning is high in both countries as more than 50% of the women having 5 children or more would have preferred to stop at 4 or less. Tanzania and Uganda have an intermediate position in desired family size and a lower potential for family planning. Generally, the main factor that sustains higher fertility is poverty exacerbated by religious norms among the poor only.

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This research uses the latest Demographic and Health Surveys to investigate the heterogeneity of effects of socioeconomic and cultural factors on fertility preferences in Rwanda and Kenya, two countries undergoing fertility transition. The results show that the preference for high fertility in Rwanda is associated with few factors namely low education, protestant religion and high child mortality. In this country, economic factors are not significant. In Kenya, however, both socioeconomic and cultural factors are important. The propensity for high fertility is correlated with low economic status, low education, Muslim religion, large family size of origin, high child mortality, etc. While Rwanda tends to be homogenous with the attitude towards low fertility Kenya displays enormous variations. The negative attitude for high fertility in Rwanda, even among the poor and rural populations, has been linked with poverty awareness and scarcity of land, which undermine the traditional values attached to large families. The conclusion is that the relationships between socioeconomic and cultural factors and fertility preferences are not unidirectional; they may vary with local context. What is significant in one country may be with less important in another. Thus, the strategies to enhance the ongoing fertility transition should be country based, designed and implemented.

Recent literature on fertility trend in Rwanda indicates that the country is undergoing a fertility transition since fertility has declined from 6.1 births to 4.2 between 2005 and 2015. According to the fertility transition theory, the decline of fertility follows change in nuptiality. In Rwanda, the trend in nuptiality pattern over the period has however not yet been investigated. This research seeks to fill that gap by describing the trend in marriage timing between 2005 and 2015 and assess the effect of education and residence on that timing. Data come from the 2005, 2010 and 2015 Rwanda Demographic and Health Surveys, women files. The study population includes all women of reproductive age, 15–49 years. The outcome variables are the proportion of women never-married and the median age at first marriage. The key independent variables are period (year), education and residence type. The study used descriptive statistics and Cox proportional hazard regression. Results indicate that, over the 10 years of study, there have been a continuing increase of the proportions of women never-married and the median ages at first marriage. Education and urbanization have been found to have a delaying effect on marriage timing. The study concludes that the observed decline in fertility is associated with the rise in age at marriage. The combined effects of increasing number of women reaching the secondary education or higher and their low risks to marry at young age, with that of progress in contraceptive use among these educated women lead to expect a continuing fertility transition.

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