This paper presents five different statistical methods for ground scene prediction (GSP) in wavelength-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. The GSP image can be used as a reference image in a change detection algorithm yielding a high probability of detection and low false alarm rate. The predictions are based on image stacks, which are composed of images from the same scene acquired at different instants with the same flight geometry. The considered methods for obtaining the ground scene prediction include (i) autoregressive models; (ii) trimmed mean; (iii) median; (iv) intensity mean; and (v) mean. It is expected that the predicted image presents the true ground scene without change and preserves the ground backscattering pattern. The study indicates that the the median method provided the most accurate representation of the true ground. To show the applicability of the GSP, a change detection algorithm was considered using the median ground scene as a reference image. As a result, the median method displayed the probability of detection of 97 % and a false alarm rate of 0.11 / km 2 , when considering military vehicles concealed in a forest.

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This paper presents Bayes' theorem for wavelengthresolution SAR change detection method development. Different change detection methods can be derived using Bayes' theorem in combination with the target model, clutter-plus-noise model, iterative implementation, and non-iterative implementation. As an example of the Bayes' theorem use for wavelength-resolution SAR change detection method development, we propose a simple change detection method with a clutter-plus-noise model and non-iterative implementation. In spite of simplicity, the proposed method provides a very competitive performance in terms of probability of detection and false alarm rate. The best result was a probability of detection of 98.7% versus a false alarm rate of one per square kilometer.