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AbstractThe development and application of evolutionary algorithms (EAs) and other metaheuristics for the optimisation of water resources systems has been an active research field for over two decades. Research to date has emphasized algorithmic improvements and individual applications in specific areas (e.g., model calibration, water distribution systems, groundwater management, river-basin planning and management, etc.). However, there has been limited synthesis between shared problem traits, common EA challenges, and needed advances across major applications. This paper clarifies the current status and future research directions for better solving key water resources problems using EAs. Advances in understanding fitness landscape properties and their effects on algorithm performance are critical. Future EA-based applications to real-world problems require a fundamental shift of focus towards improving problem formulations, understanding general theoretic frameworks for problem decompositions, major advances in EA computational efficiency, and most importantly aiding real decision-making in complex, uncertain application contexts.
Physically based (process) models based on mathematical descriptions of water motion are widely used in river basin management. During the last decade the so-called data-driven models are becoming more and more common. These models rely upon the methods of computational intelligence and machine learning, and thus assume the presence of a considerable amount of data describing the modelled system's physics (i.e. hydraulic and/or hydrologic phenomena).
This paper is a preface to the special issue on Data Driven Modelling and EvolutionaryOptimization for River Basin Management, and presents a brief overview of the most popular techniques and some of the experiences of the authors in data-driven modelling relevant to river basin management. It also identifies the current trends and common pitfalls, provides some examples of successful applications and mentions the research challenges.
This paper investigates the comparative performance of two data-driven modelling techniques, namely, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and model trees (MTs), in rainfall-runoff transformation. The applicability of these techniques is studied by predicting runoff one, three and six hours ahead for a European catchment. The result shows that both ANNs and MTs produce excellent results for 1-h ahead prediction, acceptable results for 3-h ahead prediction and conditionally acceptable result for 6-h ahead prediction. Both techniques have almost similar performance for 1-h ahead prediction of runoff, but the result of the ANN is slightly better than the MT for higher lead times. However, the advantage of the MT is that the result is more understandable and allows one to build a family of models of varying complexity and accuracy.
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