Abstract-An analytic solution to the multi-target Bayes recursion known as the δ-Generalized Labeled Multi-Bernoulli (δ-GLMB) filter has been recently proposed in [1]. As a sequel to [1], this paper details efficient implementations of the δ-GLMB multi-target tracking filter. Each iteration of this filter involves an update operation and a prediction operation, both of which result in weighted sums of multi-target exponentials with intractably large number of terms. To truncate these sums, the ranked assignment and K-th shortest path algorithms are used in the update and prediction, respectively, to determine the most significant terms without exhaustively computing all of the terms. In addition, using tools derived from the same framework, such as probability hypothesis density filtering, we present inexpensive (relative to the δ-GLMB filter) look-ahead strategies to reduce the number of computations. Characterization of the L1-error in the multi-target density arising from the truncation is presented.

BackgroundAs more and more researchers are turning to big data for new opportunities of biomedical discoveries, machine learning models, as the backbone of big data analysis, are mentioned more often in biomedical journals. However, owing to the inherent complexity of machine learning methods, they are prone to misuse. Because of the flexibility in specifying machine learning models, the results are often insufficiently reported in research articles, hindering reliable assessment of model validity and consistent interpretation of model outputs.ObjectiveTo attain a set of guidelines on the use of machine learning predictive models within clinical settings to make sure the models are correctly applied and sufficiently reported so that true discoveries can be distinguished from random coincidence.MethodsA multidisciplinary panel of machine learning experts, clinicians, and traditional statisticians were interviewed, using an iterative process in accordance with the Delphi method.ResultsThe process produced a set of guidelines that consists of (1) a list of reporting items to be included in a research article and (2) a set of practical sequential steps for developing predictive models.ConclusionsA set of guidelines was generated to enable correct application of machine learning models and consistent reporting of model specifications and results in biomedical research. We believe that such guidelines will accelerate the adoption of big data analysis, particularly with machine learning methods, in the biomedical research community.

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Personalized predictive medicine necessitates the modeling of patient illness and care processes, which inherently have long-term temporal dependencies. Healthcare observations, stored in electronic medical records are episodic and irregular in time. We introduce DeepCare, an end-to-end deep dynamic neural network that reads medical records, stores previous illness history, infers current illness states and predicts future medical outcomes. At the data level, DeepCare represents care episodes as vectors and models patient health state trajectories by the memory of historical records. Built on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), DeepCare introduces methods to handle irregularly timed events by moderating the forgetting and consolidation of memory. DeepCare also explicitly models medical interventions that change the course of illness and shape future medical risk. Moving up to the health state level, historical and present health states are then aggregated through multiscale temporal pooling, before passing through a neural network that estimates future outcomes. We demonstrate the efficacy of DeepCare for disease progression modeling, intervention recommendation, and future risk prediction. On two important cohorts with heavy social and economic burden - diabetes and mental health - the results show improved prediction accuracy.

In this paper, we propose a novel embedding model, named ConvKB, for knowledge base completion. Our model ConvKB advances state-of-the-art models by employing a convolutional neural network, so that it can capture global relationships and transitional characteristics between entities and relations in knowledge bases. In ConvKB, each triple (head entity, relation, tail entity) is represented as a 3column matrix where each column vector represents a triple element. This 3-column matrix is then fed to a convolution layer where multiple filters are operated on the matrix to generate different feature maps. These feature maps are then concatenated into a single feature vector representing the input triple. The feature vector is multiplied with a weight vector via a dot product to return a score. This score is then used to predict whether the triple is valid or not. Experiments show that ConvKB achieves better link prediction performance than previous state-of-the-art embedding models on two benchmark datasets WN18RR and FB15k-237.