A generator of spatio-temporal pseudo-random Gaussian fields that satisfy the "proportionality of scales" property (Tsyroulnikov, 2001) is presented. The generator is based on a third-order in time stochastic differential equation with a pseudo-differential spatial operator defined on a limited area 2D or 3D domain in the Cartesian coordinate system. The generated pseudo-random fields are homogeneous (stationary) and isotropic in space-time (with the scaled vertical and temporal coordinates). The correlation functions in any spatio-temporal direction belong to the Matérn class. The spatio-temporal correlations are non-separable. A spectral-space numerical solver is implemented and accelerated exploiting properties of real-world geophysical fields, in particular, smoothness of their spatial spectra. The generator is designed to create additive or multiplicative, or other spatio-temporal perturbations that represent uncertainties in numerical prediction models in geophysics. The program code of the generator is publicly available.
Applications of the ensemble Kalman filter to high-dimensional problems are feasible only with small ensembles. This necessitates a kind of regularization of the analysis (observation update) problem. We propose a regularization technique based on a new non-stationary, non-parametric spatial model on the sphere. The model termed the Locally Stationary Convolution Model is a constrained version of the general Gaussian process convolution model. The constraints on the locationdependent convolution kernel include local isotropy, positive definiteness as a function of distance, and smoothness as a function of location. The model allows for a rigorous definition of the local spectrum, which is required to be a smooth function of spatial wavenumber. We propose and test an ensemble filter in which prior covariances are postulated to obey the Locally Stationary Convolution Model. The model is estimated online in a two-stage procedure. First, ensemble perturbations are bandpass filtered in several wavenumber bands to extract aggregated local spatial spectra. Second, a neural network recovers the local spectra from sample variances of the filtered fields. In simulation experiments, the new filter was capable of outperforming several existing techniques. With small to moderate ensemble sizes, the improvement was substantial.
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