The failure of uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) is a well-known phenomenon of the last thirty years. UIP failure is more prominent in advanced economies than in emerging market economies. Typically, UIP estimation for an advanced economy generates a negative coefficient, meaning that a higher interest rate in advanced economy A will result in the appreciation of economy A's exchange rate. For emerging market economies, higher interest rates usually correspond to future depreciation, although this depreciation is not sufficient for UIP to hold. This paper shows that UIP holds in Russia better than in other emerging market economies when the UIP equation accounts for a constant risk premium. Consequently, there is no forward premium puzzle for Russian data for 2001-2014. To determine the results for Russia and to compare them with the results for other countries, we estimate UIP first for Russia and then for advanced and emerging market economies using seemingly unrelated regressions and panel data analysis. By comparing the profitability of static and dynamic carry trade strategies, we also confirm that in emerging market economies, risk premiums are often constant, whereas in advanced economies, risk premiums are almost always volatile. This may explain why UIP holds better in emerging market economies. It also enables us to formulate a hypothesis that macroeconomic policies of emerging market economies (e.g., the accumulation of large foreign exchange reserves) stabilize risk premiums.
Аннотация. Статья написана на основе опубликованных и архивных источников. В ней рассмотрены реформа О.А. Игельстрома, а также проекты по управлению Казахской степью, подготовленные некоторыми российскими чиновниками, офицерами и духовными лицами. Показаны их особенности, сделан вывод об их вли янии на российскую политику в регионе.
The paper focuses on The Great Qing Emperor's Merit and Virtue Stele (大清皇帝功德碑) that was erected in Joseon state in 1639 after the 1637 peace agreement and recognition of Qing suzerainty. Stele is examined as a visible embodiment of the imperial policy in order to concretize its features and evaluate the representing component.
The main source of the article is the translation from the Manchu text on the Stele first translated by A.M. Pozdneev and then published in 1891. The paper also uses the Chinese text of the inscription. As a result the features of the Qing policy towards Joseon visualized in the monument, perceived and broadcast within of sinocentrism are identified following.
Vassalage acceptance is presented as a historically conditioned event: the military attack took place because Joseon had violated the alliance previously concluded with the Manchus. The relations established after 1637 did not imply annexation, influence on the government system. In actual fact, vassalage was a nominal act: the ruler returned to his country, and the people – to a peaceful life. Suzerainty recognition had both actual (social) and sacred legitimation of the van power: he admitted his guilt, and subsequently became a conductor of Heaven within his state.
The Stele can be regarded as an official document was created in the “solid book” form (稳书) characteristic of China. This document monumentally embodied Korea's recognition of vassalage on the Qing dynasty and recorded the Joseon’s recognition the Manchu ruler as emperor of Celestial Empire.
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