In this paper we present a first approach to the study of the transformation in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy that has taken place in Mexico in recent years. For this purpose, we use a non-linear VAR model that allows for regime shifts. The comparison of the different regimes identified leads to the following main findings: a) there was a major structural change in the transmission mechanism around January 2001, date that coincides with the formal adoption of the inflation targeting framework; b) after this change, fluctuations in the real exchange rate have had smaller effects on the process of price formation, the formation of inflation expectations and the nominal interest rate; c) there have been stronger reactions of the nominal interest rate to increases in the output gap and the rate of inflation; and d) movements of the nominal interest rate have been more effective in influencing the real exchange rate and the rate of inflation.
In this paper I develop a simple dynamic agency model postulating that, among budgetary institutions, transparency of the budgeting process is the main driving force in explaining differences in fiscal outcomes and that budgetary numeric rules can be an active long-run constraint only if the budgeting process is transparent enough. The model does not only account for long-run differences where countries with better budgetary institutions will have more disciplined fiscal outcomes, but can rationalize situations where countries with relatively better budgetary institutions can have what would appear to be less disciplined fiscal outcomes in the short-run. Empirical tests corroborate some but not all of the model's predictions.
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