The Ottoman alliance politics before the Great War has not been explored for theorizing alliance politics though it presents a unique example of alliance formation under external threat. Thus, in this article, a neo-realist balance of threat theory is utilized to examine the Ottoman decision to align with Germany in the Great War. Unlike a historical account as to why the Ottomans sided with the German-Austrian alliance, this article develops a theoretical approach that takes insights from ‘alliance theories’ to explain the Ottomans’ fateful alignment. Such an alliance theory approach underlines the dilemmas of the Ottoman decision makers and demonstrates ‘rational’ elements of their strategy of balancing the main source of the threat. By bringing alliance theories and Ottoman historiography together it is argued that the Ottomans, in their search for an alliance before the Great War, sought a “balance of threat” politics rather than a “balance of power” politics.

Abstract:The refugee crisis of [2015][2016]

This article discusses whether the EU–Turkey migration deal of 2016 is sustainable in the midst of divergent priorities and expectations of the parties, adverse results procured from the deal, and growing mutual distrust between the EU and Turkey. In so doing, first, it provides an overview on the background of Europe’s migration crisis of 2015–2016 and outlines the rationale behind and expectations from the deal. Secondly, the article critically reviews the performance of the deal to evaluate the extent to which it has met the expectations. It is explained that while Turkey has gained strategic leverage in its relations with the EU its government has to bear political costs at the home-front and shelve off its accession perspective. The EU, on the other hand, has managed to reduce the number of migrants using the Eastern Mediterranean route but has to endure constant threats of the Turkish government to withdraw from the deal and put up with its withering reputation as a normative power. Finally, by highlighting the expectation-outcome gap and the political cost the deal has induced to bear for both parties, this article demonstrates that the agreement has been circumstantial without a solid foundation, and any of the parties may opt-out once it regards the cost-benefit balance works unfavourably for them. Migration, European Union, the EU–Turkey Migration Deal, Normative Power, Human Rights, Populism, European politics, Turkish Politics